luckadjusted

Week 15 2025 · December 11, 2025

Falcons at Buccaneers, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Buccaneers 29–28, but the Buccaneers played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): Z. Gonzalez made 43-yard field goal, worth 38 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

December 11, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −6

Luck index +80 Falcons very lucky · −80 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 2, Buccaneers win 8.

  1. 1 ATL 22 TB 10
  2. 2 ATL 17 TB 13
  3. 3 ATL 24 TB 26
  4. 4 ATL 17 TB 23
  5. 5 ATL 14 TB 23
  6. 6 ATL 19 TB 31
  7. 7 ATL 20 TB 34
  8. 8 ATL 17 TB 35
  9. 9 ATL 7 TB 30
  10. 10 ATL 17 TB 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 20% of them, Buccaneers 80%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+2.4%
Falcons by 9–166.3%
Falcons by 1–810.9%
Level after regulation2.6%
Buccaneers by 1–824.6%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.1%
Buccaneers by 17+33.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 12.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 49 yds made · 78% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 73% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 43 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:15 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +13% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:19 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 15 flags in 3730 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q4 5:11 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q4 3:40 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +16% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:34 The Falcons’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% TB ATL: Field goal
6 Q4 1:44 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% ATL ATL: Field goal
7 Q4 0:49 The Falcons converted 4th & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +32% ATL ATL: Field goal
8 Q4 0:04 Z. Gonzalez made 43-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +38% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cade Otton (TB TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tykee Smith (TB S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (TB G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • SirVocea Dennis (TB LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Drake London (ATL WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Zach Harrison (ATL DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 96% · Buccaneers 4%

Final margin
Falcons by 1
Luck in points
11.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 12.2
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 20% · Buccaneers 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Falcons · Buccaneers

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