luckadjusted

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Commanders at Giants, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Giants 29–21, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 7.8 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Giants were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:46 left): the Commanders converted 3rd & 10, worth 13 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 29
New York Giants 21

December 14, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −2.5

Luck index +58 Commanders lucky · −58 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 4, Giants win 6.

  1. 1 WAS 38 NYG 17
  2. 2 WAS 31 NYG 19
  3. 3 WAS 27 NYG 20
  4. 4 WAS 20 NYG 17
  5. 5 WAS 20 NYG 23
  6. 6 WAS 10 NYG 17
  7. 7 WAS 16 NYG 26
  8. 8 WAS 5 NYG 19
  9. 9 WAS 7 NYG 26
  10. 10 WAS 13 NYG 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 42% of them, Giants 58%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+8.8%
Commanders by 9–1612.8%
Commanders by 1–818.8%
Level after regulation2.4%
Giants by 1–824.1%
Giants by 9–1616.7%
Giants by 17+16.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Commanders by 6.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 46 yds made · 67% expected
  • Y. Koo, 52 yds missed · 62% expected
  • J. Moody, 39 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Moody, 42 yds made · 78% expected
  • Y. Koo, 51 yds missed · 63% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:46 The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +13% WAS WAS: Field goal
2 Q1 7:04 Y. Koo missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 53 of 69 from 45+ before +9% WAS NYG: Punt
3 Q2 3:43 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q2 3:31 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Deebo Samuel), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 5102 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +6% NYG NYG: Opp touchdown
5 Q2 1:20 Return touchdown by the CommandersSpecial teams +11% WAS WAS: Opp touchdown
6 Q3 7:36 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedD. Slayton dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 200 catchable balls before this +7% WAS NYG: Punt
7 Q3 2:44 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% NYG NYG: Missed field goal
8 Q3 0:13 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +6% WAS NYG: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jamie Gillan (NYG P), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cam Skattebo (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jayden Daniels (WAS QB), out, replaced by m.mariota · 2.5 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Zach Ertz (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jonathan Jones (WAS CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Trey Amos (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 55% · Giants 45%

Final margin
Commanders by 8
Luck in points
1.7 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 42% · Giants 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Commanders · Giants

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