luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Commanders at Giants, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Giants 29–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Giants were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:20 left): Return touchdown by the Commanders, worth 11 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 29
New York Giants 21

December 14, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −2.5

Luck index +42 Commanders lucky · −42 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 6, Giants win 4.

  1. 1 WAS 30 NYG 7
  2. 2 WAS 27 NYG 12
  3. 3 WAS 31 NYG 19
  4. 4 WAS 30 NYG 22
  5. 5 WAS 33 NYG 27
  6. 6 WAS 14 NYG 12
  7. 7 WAS 17 NYG 20
  8. 8 WAS 20 NYG 27
  9. 9 WAS 24 NYG 36
  10. 10 WAS 10 NYG 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 58% of them, Giants 42%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+15.5%
Commanders by 9–1616.7%
Commanders by 1–824.2%
Level after regulation3.0%
Giants by 1–818.7%
Giants by 9–1612.6%
Giants by 17+9.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 8, without the luck Commanders by 5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 46 yds made · 67% expected
  • Y. Koo, 52 yds missed · 62% expected
  • J. Moody, 39 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Moody, 42 yds made · 79% expected
  • Y. Koo, 51 yds missed · 62% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 11 for 67 yards, Giants 6 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:59 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.6 pts
Q1 11:09 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Treylon Burks), 10 yards +5% NYG +0.8 pts
Q1 8:42 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Javon Kinlaw), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.3 pts
Q2 13:38 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Chauncey Golston), 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 6:22 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 5 yards +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q2 3:31 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Deebo Samuel), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 1:26 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.2 pts
Q2 1:05 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Commanders (Jake Moody), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG 0.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Neville Hewitt), 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q3 13:52 Illegal Contact on the Commanders (Antonio Hamilton), 5 yards +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 11:48 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Commanders (Tyler Owens), 9 yards +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 8:33 False Start on the Giants (Tyrone Tracy Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q3 0:51 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants, 15 yards +5% WAS +1.4 pts
Q4 14:07 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q4 13:56 False Start on the Commanders (Jeremy McNichols), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.1 pts
Q4 11:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Jeremy Reaves), 8 yards +2% NYG +1.3 pts
Q4 10:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Cordale Flott), 17 yards 0% WAS +1.1 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:46 The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% WAS WAS: Field goal
2 Q1 9:26 J. Moody made a 46-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 15 of 27 from 45+ before +6% WAS WAS: Punt
3 Q1 7:04 Y. Koo missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 53 of 69 from 45+ before +9% WAS NYG: Punt
4 Q2 3:43 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q2 3:31 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Deebo Samuel), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 5102 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +6% NYG NYG: Opp touchdown
6 Q2 1:20 Return touchdown by the CommandersSpecial teams +11% WAS WAS: Opp touchdown
7 Q3 7:36 D. Slayton dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 200 catchable balls before this +5% WAS NYG: Punt
8 Q3 0:13 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +6% WAS NYG: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jamie Gillan (NYG P), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cam Skattebo (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jayden Daniels (WAS QB), out, replaced by m.mariota · 2.5 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Zach Ertz (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jonathan Jones (WAS CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Trey Amos (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 54% · Giants 46%

Final margin
Commanders by 8
Luck in points
3.0 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 58% · Giants 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Commanders · Giants

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