2026 NFL season · after Week 3
Injury luck, 2026: who lost the most to injuries
The Panthers lost the most to injuries in 2026 so far: key players missed 20 games, worth 11.0 points, most of all Ikem Ekwonu (T, 3 games). The Vikings lost the least, 0.2 points. Net of their opponents’ injuries, the Panthers were the unluckiest (−0.18 wins).
Every regular-season game, the engine checks which key players each team was missing before kickoff (a key player: half the snaps or more over his previous eight games) and values them by position, quality and playing time. Losing players is luck; so is facing a team that’s missing its own. Unlike a fumble bounce, it lasts: an injured player is out for weeks. Methodology
Injuries by team, 2026
| # | Team | Key-player games missed | Value lost, points | Injury luck in wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panthers | 20 | 11.0 | −0.18 |
| 2 |  Seahawks | 8 | 8.2 | −0.07 |
| 3 |  Commanders | 8 | 6.9 | −0.08 |
| 4 |  Bears | 7 | 6.2 | −0.02 |
| 5 |  Giants | 8 | 5.2 | −0.04 |
| 6 |  Packers | 8 | 5.0 | −0.09 |
| 7 |  Texans | 9 | 4.6 | −0.07 |
| 8 |  Cowboys | 8 | 4.1 | −0.03 |
| 9 |  Rams | 6 | 4.0 | −0.02 |
| 10 |  49ers | 11 | 4.0 | −0.05 |
| 11 |  Saints | 12 | 3.9 | −0.02 |
| 12 |  Chiefs | 5 | 3.6 | −0.06 |
| 13 |  Ravens | 5 | 3.4 | 0.00 |
| 14 |  Lions | 7 | 3.3 | −0.01 |
| 15 |  Steelers | 3 | 3.1 | −0.03 |
| 16 |  Raiders | 4 | 2.9 | −0.02 |
| 17 |  Cardinals | 8 | 2.9 | +0.12 |
| 18 |  Eagles | 4 | 2.8 | +0.08 |
| 19 |  Browns | 7 | 2.5 | +0.06 |
| 20 |  Chargers | 10 | 2.3 | +0.01 |
| 21 |  Patriots | 5 | 1.7 | 0.00 |
| 22 |  Falcons | 3 | 1.5 | +0.10 |
| 23 |  Titans | 6 | 1.3 | +0.06 |
| 24 |  Bills | 3 | 1.2 | +0.03 |
| 25 |  Jaguars | 3 | 1.1 | +0.01 |
| 26 |  Bengals | 4 | 1.1 | +0.05 |
| 27 |  Colts | 1 | 0.9 | +0.06 |
| 28 |  Jets | 2 | 0.8 | +0.05 |
| 29 |  Buccaneers | 3 | 0.7 | 0.00 |
| 30 |  Broncos | 2 | 0.6 | +0.07 |
| 31 |  Dolphins | 2 | 0.5 | +0.04 |
| 32 |  Vikings | 1 | 0.2 | +0.05 |
Value lost: the points of play the missing players were worth, summed over games. Injury luck in wins: each game’s injury gap in win probability, the opponent’s missing players counted in the team’s favor. Snap counts arrive a few days after a game, so the latest games may not count yet.
Questions
What was the most injured NFL team in 2026?
The Panthers, by what their missing players were worth: 20 games missed by key players so far, 11.0 points of play in all. A key player is one who played at least half the snaps over his previous eight games.
How are injuries valued?
Each missing key player costs his position’s value, scaled by how good he is against a typical starter and how much he played. A quarterback is valued as the drop from the starter to the one who played instead, from their passing. The same loss counts in the opponent’s favor.
Are injuries luck?
Mostly. Which team loses players barely carries over from one season to the next: 0.08 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Within a season it does, because an injured player is out for weeks, so injury luck doesn’t even out the way a fumble bounce does.
Other seasons: 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019
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