2023 NFL season · final

Injury luck, 2023: who lost the most to injuries

The Vikings lost the most to injuries in 2023: key players missed 47 games, worth 66.9 points, most of all Kirk Cousins (QB, 7 games). The Broncos lost the least, 12.1 points. Net of their opponents’ injuries, the Vikings were the unluckiest (−0.90 wins).

Every regular-season game, the engine checks which key players each team was missing before kickoff (a key player: half the snaps or more over his previous eight games) and values them by position, quality and playing time. Losing players is luck; so is facing a team that’s missing its own. Unlike a fumble bounce, it lasts: an injured player is out for weeks. Methodology

Injuries by team, 2023

#	Team	Key-player games missed	Value lost, points	Opponents missing, points	Injury luck in wins	Biggest absences
1	Vikings	47	66.9	25.4	−0.90	Kirk Cousins (QB, 7 games), Justin Jefferson (WR, 7 games)
2	Chargers	62	57.4	43.0	−0.23	Justin Herbert (QB, 4 games), Mike Williams (WR, 7 games)
3	Texans	104	56.6	24.1	−0.69	C.J. Stroud (QB, 2 games), Tytus Howard (T, 10 games)
4	Bengals	32	49.3	38.5	−0.17	Joe Burrow (QB, 7 games), Tee Higgins (WR, 5 games)
5	Cardinals	75	46.8	22.0	−0.45	Kyler Murray (QB, 3 games), Budda Baker (SS, 5 games)
6	Patriots	80	44.8	25.0	−0.38	Christian Gonzalez (CB, 7 games), JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, 6 games)
7	Giants	76	42.5	37.7	−0.06	Daniel Jones (QB, 7 games), Andrew Thomas (T, 7 games)
8	Dolphins	82	40.5	23.9	−0.35	Terron Armstead (T, 7 games), Xavien Howard (CB, 4 games)
9	Ravens	57	38.8	27.3	−0.24	Marlon Humphrey (CB, 7 games), Mark Andrews (TE, 7 games)
10	Titans	64	35.8	32.2	−0.09	Ryan Tannehill (QB, 3 games), Nicholas Petit-Frere (T, 11 games)
11	Packers	51	35.3	34.1	−0.02	Jaire Alexander (CB, 10 games), David Bakhtiari (T, 7 games)
12	Raiders	31	35.0	38.6	+0.11	Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, 2 games), Brian Hoyer (QB, 5 games)
13	Saints	44	33.8	34.3	+0.02	Ryan Ramczyk (T, 5 games), Marshon Lattimore (CB, 7 games)
14	Seahawks	51	32.8	27.2	−0.07	Geno Smith (QB, 2 games), Abraham Lucas (T, 8 games)
15	Steelers	60	32.2	45.9	+0.29	Minkah Fitzpatrick (FS, 7 games), Cameron Heyward (DT, 6 games)
16	Colts	55	28.9	32.9	+0.08	Braden Smith (T, 7 games), Dallis Flowers (CB, 7 games)
17	Panthers	70	28.7	30.4	+0.06	Jaycee Horn (CB, 6 games), Austin Corbett (G, 13 games)
18	Chiefs	34	28.2	28.5	−0.03	Patrick Mahomes (QB, 1 game), Donovan Smith (T, 5 games)
19	Jaguars	39	26.8	33.8	+0.08	Cam Robinson (T, 6 games), Tyson Campbell (CB, 6 games)
20	Bears	51	26.6	32.9	+0.17	Braxton Jones (T, 6 games), Yannick Ngakoue (DE, 4 games)
21	Bills	44	26.5	33.5	+0.04	Tre'Davious White (CB, 7 games), Matt Milano (LB, 7 games)
22	Eagles	54	25.9	27.1	+0.04	Darius Slay (CB, 5 games), Dallas Goedert (TE, 3 games)
23	Cowboys	31	25.5	26.4	−0.03	Trevon Diggs (CB, 7 games), Tyron Smith (T, 4 games)
24	49ers	32	25.5	30.0	+0.04	Brock Purdy (QB, 1 game), Talanoa Hufanga (SS, 7 games)
25	Rams	27	25.2	34.2	+0.18	Matthew Stafford (QB, 2 games), Rob Havenstein (T, 3 games)
26	Browns	47	24.1	35.7	+0.24	Jack Conklin (T, 5 games), Denzel Ward (CB, 3 games)
27	Lions	48	20.0	28.6	+0.18	Taylor Decker (T, 2 games), Jonah Jackson (G, 5 games)
28	Jets	41	18.6	38.3	+0.39	Duane Brown (T, 7 games), Connor McGovern (C, 7 games)
29	Falcons	47	18.1	37.6	+0.42	Kaleb McGary (T, 3 games), Taylor Heinicke (QB, 2 games)
30	Buccaneers	33	15.2	30.0	+0.31	Carlton Davis (CB, 5 games), Jamel Dean (CB, 4 games)
31	Commanders	42	14.9	34.8	+0.39	Darrick Forrest (FS, 7 games), Kendall Fuller (CB, 2 games)
32	Broncos	29	12.1	45.4	+0.69	Kareem Jackson (SS, 6 games), K'Waun Williams (CB, 5 games)

Value lost: the points of play the missing players were worth, summed over games. Injury luck in wins: each game’s injury gap in win probability, the opponent’s missing players counted in the team’s favor. Snap counts arrive a few days after a game, so the latest games may not count yet.

Questions

What was the most injured NFL team in 2023?

The Vikings, by what their missing players were worth: 47 games missed by key players, 66.9 points of play in all. A key player is one who played at least half the snaps over his previous eight games.

How are injuries valued?

Each missing key player costs his position’s value, scaled by how good he is against a typical starter and how much he played. A quarterback is valued as the drop from the starter to the one who played instead, from their passing. The same loss counts in the opponent’s favor.

Are injuries luck?

Mostly. Which team loses players barely carries over from one season to the next: 0.08 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Within a season it does, because an injured player is out for weeks, so injury luck doesn’t even out the way a fumble bounce does.

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019

2023 luck rankings · Turnover luck · Kicking luck · Every kind of luck