2025 NFL season · final

Injury luck, 2025: who lost the most to injuries

The 49ers lost the most to injuries in 2025: key players missed 89 games, worth 96.4 points, most of all Brock Purdy (QB, 7 games). The Broncos lost the least, 6.2 points. Net of their opponents’ injuries, the 49ers were the unluckiest (−1.28 wins).

Every regular-season game, the engine checks which key players each team was missing before kickoff (a key player: half the snaps or more over his previous eight games) and values them by position, quality and playing time. Losing players is luck; so is facing a team that’s missing its own. Unlike a fumble bounce, it lasts: an injured player is out for weeks. Methodology

Injuries by team, 2025

#	Team	Key-player games missed	Value lost, points	Opponents missing, points	Injury luck in wins	Biggest absences
1	49ers	89	96.4	35.4	−1.28	Brock Purdy (QB, 7 games), George Kittle (TE, 6 games)
2	Commanders	58	61.2	27.3	−0.65	Jayden Daniels (QB, 8 games), Marshon Lattimore (CB, 7 games)
3	Ravens	53	58.9	34.2	−0.54	Lamar Jackson (QB, 4 games), Nnamdi Madubuike (DL, 7 games)
4	Cardinals	103	57.3	31.0	−0.48	Kyler Murray (QB, 7 games), Jonah Williams (OL, 7 games)
5	Bengals	47	53.9	33.7	−0.32	Joe Burrow (QB, 7 games), Cordell Volson (G, 7 games)
6	Dolphins	54	51.1	39.6	−0.15	Tua Tagovailoa (QB, 3 games), Tyreek Hill (WR, 7 games)
7	Chiefs	44	48.7	32.3	−0.29	Patrick Mahomes (QB, 3 games), Josh Simmons (T, 9 games)
8	Buccaneers	89	45.6	49.9	+0.09	Tristan Wirfs (T, 5 games), Mike Evans (WR, 6 games)
9	Vikings	56	43.6	29.4	−0.26	Carson Wentz (QB, 7 games), Christian Darrisaw (T, 5 games)
10	Lions	80	43.3	42.1	−0.08	Sam LaPorta (TE, 7 games), Kerby Joseph (S, 7 games)
11	Packers	71	40.8	44.7	0.00	Tucker Kraft (TE, 7 games), Jordan Love (QB, 1 game)
12	Giants	84	38.3	42.8	+0.13	Malik Nabers (WR, 7 games), Paulson Adebo (CB, 5 games)
13	Chargers	81	37.9	28.0	−0.13	Rashawn Slater (T, 6 games), Joe Alt (T, 9 games)
14	Bills	90	37.5	30.9	−0.12	Ed Oliver (DT, 11 games), Spencer Brown (T, 3 games)
15	Jets	63	36.2	31.1	−0.06	Garrett Wilson (WR, 7 games), Justin Fields (QB, 4 games)
16	Colts	48	35.4	28.3	−0.12	Daniel Jones (QB, 4 games), Charvarius Ward (CB, 8 games)
17	Cowboys	63	34.1	37.1	+0.04	Trevon Diggs (CB, 7 games), DaRon Bland (CB, 5 games)
18	Texans	50	33.8	52.2	+0.38	C.J. Stroud (QB, 3 games), Joe Mixon (RB, 7 games)
19	Browns	62	31.7	23.0	−0.14	Jack Conklin (T, 9 games), Cornelius Lucas (T, 7 games)
20	Bears	67	31.2	47.6	+0.35	Jaylon Johnson (CB, 6 games), Rome Odunze (WR, 5 games)
21	Raiders	47	29.2	40.0	+0.28	Kolton Miller (T, 7 games), Brock Bowers (TE, 5 games)
22	Rams	53	25.8	49.4	+0.41	Rob Havenstein (OL, 10 games), Tyler Higbee (TE, 6 games)
23	Titans	70	25.1	34.8	+0.25	L'Jarius Sneed (CB, 7 games), JC Latham (T, 4 games)
24	Panthers	64	25.1	27.3	+0.05	Jalen Coker (WR, 6 games), Robert Hunt (G, 7 games)
25	Falcons	40	25.1	42.2	+0.38	Kaleb McGary (T, 7 games), Drake London (WR, 5 games)
26	Saints	53	23.2	34.0	+0.21	Erik McCoy (C, 7 games), Taliese Fuaga (T, 4 games)
27	Seahawks	34	22.6	36.6	+0.19	Devon Witherspoon (CB, 5 games), Julian Love (S, 7 games)
28	Steelers	46	22.3	33.9	+0.23	Broderick Jones (T, 6 games), Joey Porter Jr. (CB, 3 games)
29	Eagles	44	20.3	38.2	+0.35	Lane Johnson (T, 6 games), Jalen Carter (DT, 5 games)
30	Patriots	49	19.0	36.5	+0.25	Christian Gonzalez (CB, 3 games), Will Campbell (T, 4 games)
31	Jaguars	48	18.8	43.6	+0.49	Travis Hunter (WR, 7 games), Brenton Strange (TE, 5 games)
32	Broncos	24	6.2	43.1	+0.55	Ben Powers (G, 7 games), Brandon Jones (S, 3 games)

Value lost: the points of play the missing players were worth, summed over games. Injury luck in wins: each game’s injury gap in win probability, the opponent’s missing players counted in the team’s favor. Snap counts arrive a few days after a game, so the latest games may not count yet.

Questions

What was the most injured NFL team in 2025?

The 49ers, by what their missing players were worth: 89 games missed by key players, 96.4 points of play in all. A key player is one who played at least half the snaps over his previous eight games.

How are injuries valued?

Each missing key player costs his position’s value, scaled by how good he is against a typical starter and how much he played. A quarterback is valued as the drop from the starter to the one who played instead, from their passing. The same loss counts in the opponent’s favor.

Are injuries luck?

Mostly. Which team loses players barely carries over from one season to the next: 0.08 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Within a season it does, because an injured player is out for weeks, so injury luck doesn’t even out the way a fumble bounce does.

Other seasons: 2026 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019

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