luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

2025 NFL season · final

Turnover luck, 2025: who the fumbles bounced for

The Bears recovered 22 of the 30 fumbles in their games in 2025, 7.0 more than chance would give, worth +1.05 wins. The Lions recovered 9 of 32, 6.8 fewer than expected (−0.65 wins).

A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, whoever fumbled it and wherever. Beating that rate doesn’t last: a team’s recovery rate one season correlates with the next at 0.09 (192 team-seasons since 2019). Luck in wins counts each bounce by the moment it came: a fumble recovered late in a tied game is worth most of a win, one in a blowout next to nothing. Regular season only. Methodology

Fumble recoveries by team, 2025

Every fumble in a team’s games, its own and its opponents’: how many it came away with, against how many a 51.7% bounce would give.

#TeamFumblesRecoveredRateAbove expectedLuck in winsOwn fumbles keptOpponents’ won
1 Bears 302273% +7.0 +1.05 12 of 1610 of 14
2 Steelers 312065% +4.6 +0.65 8 of 1412 of 17
3 Vikings 412561% +4.5 +0.18 12 of 2113 of 20
4 Patriots 312065% +4.4 +0.63 11 of 199 of 12
5 Buccaneers 362261% +4.0 +0.41 12 of 1710 of 19
6 Dolphins 382361% +4.0 +0.35 12 of 1811 of 20
7 Chiefs 261765% +3.9 +0.32 13 of 164 of 10
8 Packers 281761% +2.9 +0.10 10 of 167 of 12
9 Colts 281761% +2.9 +0.22 10 of 187 of 10
10 Jaguars 251560% +2.5 +0.25 6 of 129 of 13
11 Cowboys 291655% +1.3 +0.36 10 of 196 of 10
12 Texans 261454% +1.2 +0.12 4 of 710 of 19
13 49ers 321753% +1.1 +0.59 7 of 1310 of 19
14 Rams 241354% +1.0 −0.38 4 of 119 of 13
15 Seahawks 321753% +0.8 −0.19 10 of 227 of 10
16 Bengals 231252% +0.5 +0.05 5 of 127 of 11
17 Raiders 281450% +0.1 +0.09 6 of 108 of 18
18 Eagles 311548% −0.4 +0.07 6 of 139 of 18
19 Giants 251144% −1.5 −0.48 5 of 126 of 13
20 Ravens 351646% −1.5 −0.27 7 of 189 of 17
21 Bills 331442% −2.5 −0.15 7 of 167 of 17
22 Saints 371643% −2.5 +0.01 6 of 1810 of 19
23 Broncos 19737% −2.5 −0.64 3 of 94 of 10
24 Titans 311342% −2.6 −0.23 6 of 177 of 14
25 Browns 341441% −2.9 +0.03 7 of 147 of 20
26 Cardinals 301240% −2.9 −0.20 3 of 129 of 18
27 Falcons 371541% −3.5 −0.20 8 of 187 of 19
28 Chargers 291138% −3.5 −0.42 8 of 153 of 14
29 Jets 311135% −4.6 −0.48 7 of 174 of 14
30 Panthers 311135% −4.6 −0.56 6 of 175 of 14
31 Commanders 351337% −4.7 −0.64 11 of 222 of 13
32 Lions 32928% −6.8 −0.65 3 of 106 of 22

Fumbles: every fumble in the team’s regular-season games where the ball was loose, its own and its opponents’. Above expected: recoveries minus the 51.7% each fumbler keeps on average. Luck in wins: each bounce’s swing in win probability at the moment it came, net of the opponent’s.

And interceptions?

Interceptions are only partly luck. FTN’s charting marks every throw a defender could have caught. How many of those a team throws is mostly its quarterback: it carries over from one season to the next at 0.39. Whether the defense holds on is closer to chance (0.02, 96 team-seasons), but within a season it runs with team quality, so our luck numbers leave interceptions out (methodology). Here are both sides, 2025.

TeamIts interception-worthy throwsPickedOpponents’ interception-worthy throwsCaughtCaught vs expected
Bears 186 2721+6.3
Buccaneers 158 1612+3.3
Chargers 2111 2014+3.1
Falcons 155 2014+3.1
Panthers 129 1913+2.6
Bills 2010 1410+2.4
Jaguars 1811 2918+2.2
Rams 146 2214+2.0
Texans 209 2615+0.8
Eagles 116 1710+0.7
Colts 2311 1710+0.7
Giants 188 127+0.5
Browns 2512 148+0.4
Cowboys 189 53+0.3
Seahawks 1915 2413−0.1
Bengals 2014 137−0.1
Lions 96 158−0.2
Vikings 2416 126−0.5
Cardinals 149 168−0.7
Ravens 105 189−0.8
Titans 186 115−1.0
Dolphins 2616 178−1.2
49ers 2213 146−1.6
Commanders 1410 167−1.7
Packers 115 167−1.7
Saints 2211 188−1.8
Patriots 148 2210−2.0
Raiders 1713 156−2.2
Broncos 2210 177−2.3
Chiefs 198 219−2.4
Steelers 147 2712−2.7
Jets 1612 90−4.9

Interception-worthy throws: FTN Data via nflverse. Expected catches use each defense’s own record on such throws, shrunk toward that season’s league rate.

Questions

Which NFL team had the most fumble luck in 2025?

The Bears: they recovered 22 of the 30 fumbles in their games (73%), 7.0 more than expected, worth +1.05 wins, the most in the league.

Is turnover luck real?

For fumbles, yes. A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, and a team that beats that rate one season doesn't the next: the correlation between consecutive seasons is 0.09 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Interceptions are different: how many interception-worthy passes a quarterback throws carries over (0.39), so part of a team's turnover margin is skill.

Do teams that recover a lot of fumbles keep doing it?

No. Recovery rates since 2019 carry over from one season to the next at 0.09, close to the zero a coin would give. Teams at the top of this table usually land near the middle a year later.

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