2019 NFL season · final

Turnover luck, 2019: who the fumbles bounced for

The Steelers recovered 35 of the 55 fumbles in their games in 2019, 7.6 more than chance would give, worth +0.95 wins. The Chargers recovered 11 of 33, 5.6 fewer than expected (−0.90 wins).

A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, whoever fumbled it and wherever. Beating that rate doesn’t last: a team’s recovery rate one season correlates with the next at 0.09 (192 team-seasons since 2019). Luck in wins counts each bounce by the moment it came: a fumble recovered late in a tied game is worth most of a win, one in a blowout next to nothing. Regular season only. Methodology

Fumble recoveries by team, 2019

Every fumble in a team’s games, its own and its opponents’: how many it came away with, against how many a 51.7% bounce would give.

#	Team	Fumbles	Recovered	Rate	Above expected	Luck in wins	Own fumbles kept	Opponents’ won
1	Steelers	55	35	64%	+7.6	+0.95	17 of 26	18 of 29
2	Vikings	48	29	60%	+4.9	+0.56	15 of 27	14 of 21
3	Saints	22	15	68%	+4.1	+0.56	5 of 7	10 of 15
4	Buccaneers	45	26	58%	+3.6	+0.66	10 of 21	16 of 24
5	Ravens	36	21	58%	+3.0	+0.47	10 of 17	11 of 19
6	Seahawks	46	26	57%	+3.0	+0.20	10 of 23	16 of 23
7	Texans	32	19	59%	+3.0	+0.40	9 of 17	10 of 15
8	Broncos	32	19	59%	+2.9	+0.05	13 of 19	6 of 13
9	Cowboys	31	18	58%	+2.5	+0.05	8 of 15	10 of 16
10	Bears	24	14	58%	+2.0	+0.16	5 of 11	9 of 13
11	Titans	32	18	56%	+1.9	+0.27	9 of 18	9 of 14
12	Bills	43	23	53%	+1.5	+0.25	15 of 22	8 of 21
13	49ers	43	22	51%	+0.6	−0.07	8 of 18	14 of 25
14	Raiders	32	16	50%	−0.1	−0.20	11 of 19	5 of 13
15	Patriots	33	16	48%	−0.3	−0.22	5 of 10	11 of 23
16	Giants	42	21	50%	−0.3	−0.08	15 of 30	6 of 12
17	Rams	37	18	49%	−0.3	−0.07	7 of 14	11 of 23
18	Washington	43	21	49%	−0.4	−0.54	12 of 20	9 of 23
19	Falcons	37	18	49%	−0.6	+0.30	10 of 20	8 of 17
20	Lions	32	15	47%	−0.9	−0.09	4 of 12	11 of 20
21	Dolphins	35	16	46%	−1.7	+0.01	14 of 22	2 of 13
22	Browns	30	13	43%	−2.0	−0.11	7 of 14	6 of 16
23	Jaguars	40	18	45%	−2.0	−0.15	9 of 21	9 of 19
24	Eagles	46	21	46%	−2.2	−0.05	13 of 28	8 of 18
25	Panthers	41	18	44%	−2.7	−0.38	11 of 25	7 of 16
26	Cardinals	32	13	41%	−2.8	−0.13	3 of 9	10 of 23
27	Chiefs	38	16	42%	−3.0	+0.08	9 of 19	7 of 19
28	Colts	32	13	41%	−3.0	−0.44	5 of 16	8 of 16
29	Bengals	32	13	41%	−3.2	−0.50	8 of 22	5 of 10
30	Jets	42	16	38%	−4.8	−0.67	7 of 15	9 of 27
31	Packers	28	9	32%	−4.9	−0.36	3 of 12	6 of 16
32	Chargers	33	11	33%	−5.6	−0.90	8 of 18	3 of 15

Fumbles: every fumble in the team’s regular-season games where the ball was loose, its own and its opponents’. Above expected: recoveries minus the 51.7% each fumbler keeps on average. Luck in wins: each bounce’s swing in win probability at the moment it came, net of the opponent’s.

Questions

Which NFL team had the most fumble luck in 2019?

The Steelers: they recovered 35 of the 55 fumbles in their games (64%), 7.6 more than expected, worth +0.95 wins, the most in the league.

Is turnover luck real?

For fumbles, yes. A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, and a team that beats that rate one season doesn't the next: the correlation between consecutive seasons is 0.09 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Interceptions are different: how many interception-worthy passes a quarterback throws carries over (0.39), so part of a team's turnover margin is skill.

Do teams that recover a lot of fumbles keep doing it?

No. Recovery rates since 2019 carry over from one season to the next at 0.09, close to the zero a coin would give. Teams at the top of this table usually land near the middle a year later.

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