2019 NFL season · final

Injury luck, 2019: who lost the most to injuries

The Lions lost the most to injuries in 2019: key players missed 61 games, worth 52.8 points, most of all Matthew Stafford (QB, 5 games). The Vikings lost the least, 10.8 points. Net of their opponents’ injuries, the Chiefs were the unluckiest (−0.58 wins).

Every regular-season game, the engine checks which key players each team was missing before kickoff (a key player: half the snaps or more over his previous eight games) and values them by position, quality and playing time. Losing players is luck; so is facing a team that’s missing its own. Unlike a fumble bounce, it lasts: an injured player is out for weeks. Methodology

Injuries by team, 2019

#	Team	Key-player games missed	Value lost, points	Opponents missing, points	Injury luck in wins	Biggest absences
1	Lions	61	52.8	20.1	−0.54	Matthew Stafford (QB, 5 games), T.J. Hockenson (TE, 4 games)
2	Chiefs	58	50.6	20.4	−0.58	Patrick Mahomes (QB, 2 games), Eric Fisher (T, 7 games)
3	Texans	66	45.5	26.5	−0.33	J.J. Watt (DE, 7 games), Deshaun Watson (QB, 1 game)
4	Jets	94	42.2	25.5	−0.27	Trumaine Johnson (CB, 7 games), Ryan Kalil (C, 6 games)
5	Washington	68	36.3	30.4	−0.04	Vernon Davis (TE, 7 games), Case Keenum (QB, 2 games)
6	Chargers	69	34.4	21.9	−0.27	Derwin James (FS, 7 games), Mike Pouncey (C, 7 games)
7	Dolphins	70	30.4	28.1	−0.03	Xavien Howard (CB, 7 games), Preston Williams (WR, 7 games)
8	Eagles	59	29.9	21.0	−0.22	Alshon Jeffery (WR, 6 games), Lane Johnson (T, 4 games)
9	Browns	60	29.4	20.5	−0.18	Olivier Vernon (DE, 6 games), David Njoku (TE, 7 games)
10	49ers	45	28.4	23.4	−0.08	Joe Staley (T, 7 games), Mike McGlinchey (T, 4 games)
11	Seahawks	63	27.2	26.6	−0.01	Duane Brown (T, 4 games), Justin Britt (C, 7 games)
12	Ravens	44	27.0	28.1	−0.04	Lamar Jackson (QB, 1 game), Jimmy Smith (CB, 7 games)
13	Rams	41	26.2	19.7	−0.13	Rob Havenstein (T, 7 games), Aqib Talib (CB, 3 games)
14	Colts	42	25.3	22.6	−0.05	T.Y. Hilton (WR, 6 games), Jacoby Brissett (QB, 1 game)
15	Panthers	49	23.8	19.1	−0.10	Kawann Short (DE, 7 games), Greg Little (T, 10 games)
16	Bengals	48	22.9	20.6	−0.03	Cordy Glenn (T, 7 games), Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, 7 games)
17	Falcons	40	22.9	18.9	−0.06	Desmond Trufant (CB, 7 games), Matt Ryan (QB, 1 game)
18	Giants	41	22.7	24.1	+0.06	Evan Engram (TE, 8 games), Sterling Shepard (WR, 6 games)
19	Bears	44	22.4	31.5	+0.16	Bobby Massie (T, 5 games), Taylor Gabriel (WR, 7 games)
20	Saints	46	21.6	19.1	−0.06	Andrus Peat (G, 6 games), Drew Brees (QB, 3 games)
21	Jaguars	47	21.1	26.1	+0.10	Jalen Ramsey (CB, 3 games), Marcell Dareus (DE, 7 games)
22	Cowboys	40	19.7	36.4	+0.33	Tyron Smith (T, 3 games), Leighton Vander Esch (LB, 7 games)
23	Steelers	33	18.0	32.5	+0.32	Stephon Tuitt (DE, 6 games), JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, 4 games)
24	Broncos	40	17.7	27.2	+0.17	Tim Patrick (WR, 6 games), Derek Wolfe (DE, 4 games)
25	Raiders	40	17.6	26.1	+0.17	Trent Brown (T, 5 games), Jordan Devey (C, 7 games)
26	Cardinals	32	17.4	26.8	+0.16	Zach Allen (DE, 6 games), Damiere Byrd (WR, 5 games)
27	Patriots	44	17.1	26.0	+0.11	Stephen Gostkowski (K, 7 games), Isaiah Wynn (T, 7 games)
28	Titans	34	16.2	32.2	+0.28	Malcolm Butler (CB, 7 games), Ryan Succop (K, 9 games)
29	Buccaneers	25	14.9	30.4	+0.31	Mike Evans (WR, 3 games), Chris Godwin (WR, 2 games)
30	Bills	32	14.3	23.8	+0.15	Duke Williams (WR, 7 games), Ty Nsekhe (T, 6 games)
31	Packers	29	11.8	32.6	+0.38	Davante Adams (WR, 4 games), Lane Taylor (G, 7 games)
32	Vikings	23	10.8	30.1	+0.32	Adam Thielen (WR, 4 games), Brian O'Neill (T, 1 game)

Value lost: the points of play the missing players were worth, summed over games. Injury luck in wins: each game’s injury gap in win probability, the opponent’s missing players counted in the team’s favor. Snap counts arrive a few days after a game, so the latest games may not count yet.

Questions

What was the most injured NFL team in 2019?

The Lions, by what their missing players were worth: 61 games missed by key players, 52.8 points of play in all. A key player is one who played at least half the snaps over his previous eight games.

How are injuries valued?

Each missing key player costs his position’s value, scaled by how good he is against a typical starter and how much he played. A quarterback is valued as the drop from the starter to the one who played instead, from their passing. The same loss counts in the opponent’s favor.

Are injuries luck?

Mostly. Which team loses players barely carries over from one season to the next: 0.08 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Within a season it does, because an injured player is out for weeks, so injury luck doesn’t even out the way a fumble bounce does.

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020

2019 luck rankings · Turnover luck · Kicking luck · Every kind of luck