2021 NFL season · final

Injury luck, 2021: who lost the most to injuries

The Texans lost the most to injuries in 2021: key players missed 70 games, worth 90.8 points, most of all Deshaun Watson (QB, 7 games). The Raiders lost the least, 13.6 points. Net of their opponents’ injuries, the Saints were the unluckiest (−0.93 wins).

Every regular-season game, the engine checks which key players each team was missing before kickoff (a key player: half the snaps or more over his previous eight games) and values them by position, quality and playing time. Losing players is luck; so is facing a team that’s missing its own. Unlike a fumble bounce, it lasts: an injured player is out for weeks. Methodology

Injuries by team, 2021

#	Team	Key-player games missed	Value lost, points	Opponents missing, points	Injury luck in wins	Biggest absences
1	Texans	70	90.8	39.0	−0.75	Deshaun Watson (QB, 7 games), Laremy Tunsil (T, 7 games)
2	Saints	88	84.3	35.4	−0.93	Jameis Winston (QB, 7 games), Ryan Ramczyk (T, 7 games)
3	Ravens	78	78.7	32.9	−0.86	Lamar Jackson (QB, 5 games), Marcus Peters (CB, 7 games)
4	Lions	103	60.2	38.7	−0.30	Jared Goff (QB, 3 games), Taylor Decker (T, 7 games)
5	Cardinals	75	56.0	52.3	−0.17	Kyler Murray (QB, 3 games), J.J. Watt (DE, 7 games)
6	49ers	93	53.6	33.8	−0.32	Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, 2 games), Mike McGlinchey (T, 7 games)
7	Broncos	85	52.2	31.1	−0.38	Teddy Bridgewater (QB, 3 games), Jerry Jeudy (WR, 7 games)
8	Packers	78	51.9	51.8	−0.11	Aaron Rodgers (QB, 1 game), Jaire Alexander (CB, 7 games)
9	Buccaneers	75	49.0	41.8	−0.17	Richard Sherman (CB, 5 games), Antonio Brown (WR, 7 games)
10	Giants	84	47.8	24.4	−0.41	Daniel Jones (QB, 6 games), Sterling Shepard (WR, 9 games)
11	Jets	104	44.8	38.5	−0.10	Corey Davis (WR, 8 games), Mike White (QB, 5 games)
12	Bears	71	44.3	46.3	+0.05	Andy Dalton (QB, 5 games), Germain Ifedi (T, 7 games)
13	Seahawks	55	43.6	47.3	+0.10	Russell Wilson (QB, 3 games), Brandon Shell (T, 7 games)
14	Vikings	46	42.5	43.3	+0.09	Danielle Hunter (DE, 7 games), Kirk Cousins (QB, 1 game)
15	Washington	84	41.4	22.2	−0.33	Montez Sweat (DE, 7 games), Samuel Cosmi (T, 6 games)
16	Cowboys	60	40.3	48.9	+0.12	Dak Prescott (QB, 1 game), Tyron Smith (T, 6 games)
17	Panthers	91	38.7	55.3	+0.30	Jaycee Horn (CB, 7 games), Christian McCaffrey (RB, 10 games)
18	Browns	55	37.6	54.9	+0.19	Baker Mayfield (QB, 3 games), Jarvis Landry (WR, 5 games)
19	Colts	74	36.7	39.6	−0.02	T.Y. Hilton (WR, 6 games), Xavier Rhodes (CB, 4 games)
20	Steelers	52	35.2	44.3	+0.20	Stephon Tuitt (DE, 7 games), Joe Haden (CB, 5 games)
21	Titans	70	34.9	24.0	−0.20	Julio Jones (WR, 6 games), A.J. Brown (WR, 4 games)
22	Bengals	51	31.1	36.8	+0.12	Joe Burrow (QB, 1 game), Riley Reiff (T, 5 games)
23	Eagles	72	30.9	53.0	+0.40	Lane Johnson (T, 4 games), Jack Driscoll (T, 7 games)
24	Jaguars	70	27.4	48.5	+0.49	Tre Herndon (CB, 6 games), Brandon Linder (G, 8 games)
25	Bills	40	25.3	36.1	+0.13	Tre'Davious White (CB, 6 games), Spencer Brown (T, 4 games)
26	Rams	44	22.0	45.5	+0.38	Robert Woods (WR, 7 games), Andrew Whitworth (T, 2 games)
27	Falcons	55	21.1	38.0	+0.28	Calvin Ridley (WR, 7 games), Isaiah Oliver (CB, 6 games)
28	Chiefs	37	19.1	42.7	+0.38	Mike Remmers (T, 7 games), Charvarius Ward (CB, 4 games)
29	Chargers	43	18.3	44.2	+0.50	Kenneth Murray (LB, 5 games), Justin Jones (DT, 6 games)
30	Dolphins	41	17.7	38.2	+0.40	DeVante Parker (WR, 7 games), Greg Mancz (C, 6 games)
31	Patriots	40	15.9	40.8	+0.41	Stephon Gilmore (CB, 4 games), Jonathan Jones (CB, 7 games)
32	Raiders	40	13.6	37.2	+0.49	Trayvon Mullen (CB, 6 games), Darren Waller (TE, 6 games)

Value lost: the points of play the missing players were worth, summed over games. Injury luck in wins: each game’s injury gap in win probability, the opponent’s missing players counted in the team’s favor. Snap counts arrive a few days after a game, so the latest games may not count yet.

Questions

What was the most injured NFL team in 2021?

The Texans, by what their missing players were worth: 70 games missed by key players, 90.8 points of play in all. A key player is one who played at least half the snaps over his previous eight games.

How are injuries valued?

Each missing key player costs his position’s value, scaled by how good he is against a typical starter and how much he played. A quarterback is valued as the drop from the starter to the one who played instead, from their passing. The same loss counts in the opponent’s favor.

Are injuries luck?

Mostly. Which team loses players barely carries over from one season to the next: 0.08 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Within a season it does, because an injured player is out for weeks, so injury luck doesn’t even out the way a fumble bounce does.

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2020 · 2019

2021 luck rankings · Turnover luck · Kicking luck · Every kind of luck