2021 season · final

Seattle Seahawks, 2021: game by game

The Seahawks went 7–10 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.3 wins. Luck cost them 0.3: the 15th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.

Every game

How often the Seahawks win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Colts	W 28–16	62%	+38
Week 2	vs Titans	L 30–33	35%	−35
Week 3	@ Vikings	L 17–30	58%	−58
Week 4	@ 49ers	W 28–21	8%	+92
Week 5	vs Rams	L 17–26	27%	−27
Week 6	@ Steelers	L 20–23	27%	−27
Week 7	vs Saints	L 10–13	48%	−48
Week 8	vs Jaguars	W 31–7	57%	+43
Week 10	@ Packers	L 0–17	21%	−21
Week 11	vs Cardinals	L 13–23	38%	−38
Week 12	@ Washington	L 15–17	11%	−11
Week 13	vs 49ers	W 30–23	2%	+98
Week 14	@ Texans	W 33–13	85%	+15
Week 15	@ Rams	L 10–20	11%	−11
Week 16	vs Bears	L 24–25	63%	−63
Week 17	vs Lions	W 51–29	86%	+14
Week 18	@ Cardinals	W 38–30	83%	+17

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +38 @ IND

Wk 2 −35 vs TEN

Wk 3 −58 @ MIN

Wk 4 +92 @ SF

Wk 5 −27 vs LA

Wk 6 −27 @ PIT

Wk 7 −48 vs NO

Wk 8 +43 vs JAX

Wk 10 −21 @ GB

Wk 11 −38 vs ARI

Wk 12 −11 @ WAS

Wk 13 +98 vs SF

Wk 14 +15 @ HOU

Wk 15 −11 @ LA

Wk 16 −63 vs CHI

Wk 17 +14 vs DET

Wk 18 +17 @ ARI

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Seahawks’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+17.9	+1.06
3rd & 4th downs	+6.6	+0.39
Injuries	+3.7	+0.22
Kicks	−0.5	−0.03
Rest	−0.6	−0.03