luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Texans, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Texans 33–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:04 left): K. Fairbairn made a 61-yard field goal, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 33
Houston Texans 13

December 12, 2021 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −10

Luck index +13 Seahawks about even · −13 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Texans win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 45 HOU 13
  2. 2 SEA 38 HOU 13
  3. 3 SEA 27 HOU 6
  4. 4 SEA 17 HOU 0
  5. 5 SEA 33 HOU 19
  6. 6 SEA 20 HOU 9
  7. 7 SEA 31 HOU 23
  8. 8 SEA 20 HOU 16
  9. 9 SEA 21 HOU 20
  10. 10 SEA 33 HOU 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 87% of them, Texans 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+43.1%
Seahawks by 9–1623.3%
Seahawks by 1–819.2%
Level after regulation1.8%
Texans by 1–88.4%
Texans by 9–163.2%
Texans by 17+1.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Texans: the final margin was Seahawks by 20, without the luck Seahawks by 21.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 61 yds made · 47% expected
  • J. Myers, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 8 for 69 yards, Texans 6 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 9:01 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Brandin Cooks), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% SEA +2.8 pts
Q2 7:56 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Al Woods), 15 yards +12% HOU +2.8 pts
Q2 7:14 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.7 pts
Q2 6:05 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Alton Robinson), 13 yards +2% HOU +1.1 pts
Q2 6:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Desmond King), 16 yards +2% SEA +1.0 pts
Q2 3:51 False Start on the Seahawks (Tyler Lockett), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.4 pts
Q2 0:16 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +3% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Cody Barton), 10 yards +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 5:26 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +17% HOU +4.3 pts
Q3 3:01 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Sidney Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% HOU +2.6 pts
Q3 1:50 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.3 pts
Q4 8:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 7 yards +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q4 6:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (D.J. Reed), 6 yards 0% SEA +0.1 pts
Q4 2:05 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.1 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:41 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% SEA SEA: Field goal
2 Q2 9:01 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Brandin Cooks), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 2148 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +9% SEA SEA: Punt
3 Q2 7:56 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Al Woods), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1023 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 +12% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q2 1:13 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% SEA HOU: Punt
5 Q2 0:04 K. Fairbairn made a 61-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 12 of 23 from 45+ before +20% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q3 5:26 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q3 3:01 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Sidney Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1165 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +10% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q4 10:26 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Shell (SEA T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jamal Adams (SEA SS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Tre Brown (SEA DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kyle Fuller (SEA G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 100% · Texans 0%

Final margin
Seahawks by 20
Luck in points
1.3 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 21.3
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 87% · Texans 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · Seahawks · Texans

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