luckadjusted

Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Texans, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Texans 33–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.3 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:04 left): K. Fairbairn made 61-yard field goal, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 33
Houston Texans 13

December 12, 2021 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −10

Luck index +15 Seahawks about even · −15 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Texans win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 37 HOU 6
  2. 2 SEA 34 HOU 9
  3. 3 SEA 28 HOU 7
  4. 4 SEA 31 HOU 14
  5. 5 SEA 23 HOU 10
  6. 6 SEA 23 HOU 12
  7. 7 SEA 24 HOU 16
  8. 8 SEA 34 HOU 30
  9. 9 SEA 29 HOU 27
  10. 10 SEA 10 HOU 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 85% of them, Texans 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+43.4%
Seahawks by 9–1622.0%
Seahawks by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation1.4%
Texans by 1–88.9%
Texans by 9–163.7%
Texans by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 24.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 61 yds made · 48% expected
  • J. Myers, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:44 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:41 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% SEA SEA: Field goal
3 Q2 9:01 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Brandin Cooks), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 2148 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +9% SEA SEA: Punt
4 Q2 7:56 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Al Woods), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1023 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 +12% HOU HOU: Field goal
5 Q2 0:04 K. Fairbairn made 61-yard field goalKicks · 48% expected for him, 12 of 23 from 45+ before +20% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q3 5:26 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q3 3:01 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Sidney Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1165 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +11% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q4 8:59 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Shell (SEA T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jamal Adams (SEA SS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Tre Brown (SEA DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kyle Fuller (SEA G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 100% · Texans 0%

Final margin
Seahawks by 20
Luck in points
4.8 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 24.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 85% · Texans 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · Seahawks · Texans

More from Week 14 2021