luckadjusted

Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Buccaneers, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Bills 33–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 5:42 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 3, worth 52 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final (OT)

Buffalo Bills 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33

December 12, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3.5

Luck index +27 Buccaneers lucky · −27 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 3, Buccaneers win 7.

  1. 1 BUF 37 TB 20
  2. 2 BUF 38 TB 28
  3. 3 BUF 34 TB 31
  4. 4 BUF 34 TB 36
  5. 5 BUF 34 TB 40
  6. 6 BUF 24 TB 33
  7. 7 BUF 32 TB 44
  8. 8 BUF 28 TB 44
  9. 9 BUF 34 TB 55
  10. 10 BUF 9 TB 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 27% of them, Buccaneers 73%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+5.1%
Bills by 9–167.3%
Bills by 1–813.0%
Level after regulation2.1%
Buccaneers by 1–823.1%
Buccaneers by 9–1618.6%
Buccaneers by 17+30.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 1.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Bass, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Succop, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Bass, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:57 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% TB TB: Punt
2 Q4 3:22 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +12% BUF TB: Punt
3 Q4 1:55 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% TB BUF: Field goal
4 Q4 1:48 The Bills converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +13% BUF BUF: Field goal
5 Q4 0:28 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +12% TB BUF: Field goal
6 QOT 9:01 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +13% TB BUF: Punt
7 QOT 7:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 19 yardsJudgment calls +12% TB TB: Touchdown
8 QOT 5:42 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +52% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Antonio Brown (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Edwards (TB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tre'Davious White (BUF CB), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Star Lotulelei (BUF DT), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 61% · Buccaneers 39%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 6
Luck in points
7.6 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Bills 27% · Buccaneers 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · Bills · Buccaneers

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