Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Ravens at Browns, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?
The Browns beat the Ravens 24–22, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
Before kickoff the Browns were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:17 left): Onside kick recovered by the Ravens, worth 31 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 22 |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Browns lucky · −29 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 3, Browns win 7.
- 1 BAL 33 CLE 14
- 2 BAL 30 CLE 20
- 3 BAL 24 CLE 20
- 4 BAL 24 CLE 26
- 5 BAL 23 CLE 28
- 6 BAL 7 CLE 16
- 7 BAL 17 CLE 30
- 8 BAL 10 CLE 29
- 9 BAL 21 CLE 44
- 10 BAL 21 CLE 52
Your call
Did the Browns earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 29% of them, Browns 71%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 4.9% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 8.2% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 15.2% |
| Level after regulation | 3.3% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 22.2% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 20.2% |
| Browns by 17+ | 26.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. McLaughlin, 43 yds made · 80% expected
- J. Tucker, 50 yds made · 70% expected
- J. Tucker, 42 yds made · 84% expected
- J. Tucker, 55 yds made · 65% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 41 yds missed · 84% expected
Penalties: Ravens 10 for 129 yards, Browns 4 for 42 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:20 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 7 yards, wiping out the play | +4% BAL +1.8 pts |
| Q1 10:19 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Anthony Averett), 18 yards | +4% CLE +2.3 pts |
| Q1 8:51 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 30 yards | +6% CLE +1.8 pts |
| Q1 0:13 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% CLE +2.4 pts |
| Q2 8:23 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Tavon Young), 2 yards | +1% CLE +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Devonta Freeman), 15 yards | +1% CLE +1.4 pts |
| Q3 8:14 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | 0% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:00 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | 0% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:44 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +1% CLE +1.1 pts |
| Q3 5:38 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Jacob Phillips), 15 yards | +1% BAL +1.8 pts |
| Q3 4:27 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | 0% CLE +1.1 pts |
| Q3 4:20 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Rashod Bateman), 10 yards | 0% CLE +0.4 pts |
| Q4 7:07 | Intentional Grounding on the Ravens, 14 yards | +2% CLE +1.3 pts |
| Q4 5:33 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +3% CLE +0.9 pts |
Ravens penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Browns’ chance of winning
As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:51 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 30 yardsJudgment calls | +6% CLE | CLE: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 5:45 | The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 0:13 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 12:58 | The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +5% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:58 | The Ravens fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams | +7% CLE | BAL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 12:13 | The Ravens fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Devonta Freeman), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1126 snaps before, position avg 1 per 773 | +4% CLE | BAL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:17 | Onside kick recovered by the RavensSpecial teams | +31% BAL | BAL: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:00 | The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +25% CLE | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Ronnie Harrison (CLE SS), out · 0.3 pts
- Jamie Gillan (CLE P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
- DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Patrick Mekari (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 81% · Browns 19%
- Final margin
- Browns by 2
- Luck in points
- 10.2 for the Browns
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 8.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 29% · Browns 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · 
Ravens · 
Browns
More from Week 14 2021
- Steelers at Vikings MIN 36–28 · replay 82% for the winner
- Falcons at Panthers ATL 29–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington DAL 27–20 · replay 79% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans TEN 20–0 · replay 90% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 48–9 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Jets NO 30–9 · replay 61% for the winner
- Seahawks at Texans SEA 33–13 · replay 87% for the winner
- Lions at Broncos DEN 38–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Giants at Chargers LAC 37–21 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bills at Buccaneers TB 33–27 · replay 74% for the winner
- 49ers at Bengals SF 26–23 · replay 38% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 45–30 · replay 87% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 30–23 · replay 68% for the winner