luckadjusted

Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Jets, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Jets 30–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 5.3 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Saints were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:44 left): the Jets converted 4th & 7, worth 12 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New Orleans Saints 30
New York Jets 9

December 12, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Saints −4.5

Luck index +39 Saints lucky · −39 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 6, Jets win 4.

  1. 1 NO 29 NYJ 6
  2. 2 NO 22 NYJ 5
  3. 3 NO 26 NYJ 13
  4. 4 NO 18 NYJ 10
  5. 5 NO 14 NYJ 9
  6. 6 NO 26 NYJ 24
  7. 7 NO 17 NYJ 20
  8. 8 NO 20 NYJ 27
  9. 9 NO 16 NYJ 27
  10. 10 NO 14 NYJ 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 61% of them, Jets 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+16.7%
Saints by 9–1618.3%
Saints by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation2.5%
Jets by 1–819.1%
Jets by 9–1611.6%
Jets by 17+5.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 21.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 46 yds made · 74% expected
  • B. Maher, 31 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. Maher, 37 yds made · 88% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 36 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:28 The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% NO NO: Field goal
2 Q2 11:44 The Jets converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
3 Q2 0:31 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jets (Denzel Mims), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 606 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +6% NO NO: Punt
4 Q2 0:05 E. Pineiro made 46-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 4 of 6 from 45+ before +10% NYJ NYJ: Punt
5 Q3 11:49 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Kwon Alexander), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1436 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +6% NYJ NYJ: Punt
6 Q3 10:42 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% NO NYJ: Punt
7 Q3 0:10 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% NO NYJ: Punt
8 Q4 14:25 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% NO NO: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike White (NYJ QB), out (IR), replaced by z.wilson · 0.9 pts
  • Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NYJ FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bryce Huff (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Elijah Moore (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Carter (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jamien Sherwood (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jameis Winston (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by t.hill · 5.2 pts
  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Cameron Jordan (NO DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Adam Trautman (NO TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 100% · Jets 0%

Final margin
Saints by 21
Luck in points
0.4 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 21.4
Replay with same day's form
Saints 61% · Jets 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · Saints · Jets

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