luckadjusted

Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Broncos, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Lions 38–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:50 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 14 yards, worth 12 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Detroit Lions 10
Denver Broncos 38

December 12, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −13

Luck index +10 Broncos about even · −10 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 1, Broncos win 9.

  1. 1 DET 37 DEN 31
  2. 2 DET 14 DEN 16
  3. 3 DET 20 DEN 24
  4. 4 DET 13 DEN 20
  5. 5 DET 7 DEN 16
  6. 6 DET 14 DEN 26
  7. 7 DET 13 DEN 27
  8. 8 DET 6 DEN 23
  9. 9 DET 20 DEN 42
  10. 10 DET 7 DEN 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 10% of them, Broncos 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+0.4%
Lions by 9–162.0%
Lions by 1–87.3%
Level after regulation1.8%
Broncos by 1–819.6%
Broncos by 9–1626.7%
Broncos by 17+42.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 17.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • B. McManus, 52 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 14 yardsJudgment calls +12% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:57 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% DEN DET: Punt
3 Q2 15:00 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:56 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% DET DEN: Punt
5 Q2 8:53 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +7% DET DET: Field goal
6 Q2 6:43 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% DEN DET: Field goal
7 Q2 2:00 The Lions converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +3% DET DET: Punt
8 Q3 14:19 The Lions fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% DEN DET: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Graham Glasgow (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Malik Reed (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • T.J. Hockenson (DET TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Trinity Benson (DET WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • D'Andre Swift (DET RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Brown (DET C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Trey Flowers (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (DET K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jalen Reeves-Maybin (DET LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 0% · Broncos 100%

Final margin
Broncos by 28
Luck in points
11.0 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 17.0
Replay with same day's form
Lions 10% · Broncos 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · Lions · Broncos

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