Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Lions at Broncos, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?
The Broncos beat the Lions 38–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Broncos were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:50 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 14 yards, worth 12 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 10 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Broncos about even · −9 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 1, Broncos win 9.
- 1 DET 23 DEN 17
- 2 DET 18 DEN 20
- 3 DET 16 DEN 20
- 4 DET 6 DEN 13
- 5 DET 13 DEN 23
- 6 DET 6 DEN 19
- 7 DET 17 DEN 32
- 8 DET 7 DEN 24
- 9 DET 12 DEN 34
- 10 DET 10 DEN 38
Your call
Did the Broncos earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 9% of them, Broncos 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 5.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 19.5% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 24.9% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 46.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Patterson, 36 yds made · 92% expected
- B. McManus, 52 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Lions 6 for 53 yards, Broncos 2 for 18 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 14 yards | +12% DEN +2.4 pts |
| Q2 12:31 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEN 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:03 | Defensive Offside on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:53 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Albert Okwuegbunam), 10 yards | +3% DET +1.4 pts |
| Q3 1:23 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 9 yards | +1% DEN +1.8 pts |
| Q3 0:44 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Caden Sterns), 8 yards | 0% DET +1.1 pts |
| Q4 1:51 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Lions (Charles Harris), 15 yards | +2% DEN +1.1 pts |
Lions penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +12% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 15:00 | The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 11:56 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% DET | DEN: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 8:53 | The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +5% DET | DET: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 6:43 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +4% DEN | DET: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 2:00 | The Lions converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +3% DET | DET: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 14:19 | The Lions fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% DEN | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 12:53 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Albert Okwuegbunam), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 379 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 | +3% DET | DET: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Graham Glasgow (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Malik Reed (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- T.J. Hockenson (DET TE), out · 1.0 pts
- Trinity Benson (DET WR), out · 0.5 pts
- D'Andre Swift (DET RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Evan Brown (DET C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Tracy Walker (DET FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Trey Flowers (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Austin Seibert (DET K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Jalen Reeves-Maybin (DET LB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 0% · Broncos 100%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 28
- Luck in points
- 9.7 for the Broncos
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 18.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 9% · Broncos 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · 
Lions · 
Broncos
More from Week 14 2021
- Steelers at Vikings MIN 36–28 · replay 82% for the winner
- Falcons at Panthers ATL 29–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns CLE 24–22 · replay 71% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington DAL 27–20 · replay 79% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans TEN 20–0 · replay 90% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 48–9 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Jets NO 30–9 · replay 61% for the winner
- Seahawks at Texans SEA 33–13 · replay 87% for the winner
- Giants at Chargers LAC 37–21 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bills at Buccaneers TB 33–27 · replay 74% for the winner
- 49ers at Bengals SF 26–23 · replay 38% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 45–30 · replay 87% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 30–23 · replay 68% for the winner