luckadjusted

Week 14 2021 · December 9, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Vikings, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Steelers 36–28, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.2 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:36 left): C. Boswell missed 49-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 28
Minnesota Vikings 36

December 9, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3.5

Luck index +15 Vikings about even · −15 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 2, Vikings win 8.

  1. 1 PIT 49 MIN 35
  2. 2 PIT 24 MIN 20
  3. 3 PIT 28 MIN 31
  4. 4 PIT 23 MIN 29
  5. 5 PIT 24 MIN 33
  6. 6 PIT 29 MIN 41
  7. 7 PIT 14 MIN 30
  8. 8 PIT 16 MIN 36
  9. 9 PIT 23 MIN 47
  10. 10 PIT 20 MIN 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 15% of them, Vikings 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+1.8%
Steelers by 9–164.4%
Steelers by 1–88.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
Vikings by 1–817.6%
Vikings by 9–1622.6%
Vikings by 17+42.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 15.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 53 yds missed · 70% expected
  • C. Boswell, 49 yds missed · 82% expected
  • G. Joseph, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Joseph, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • G. Joseph, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:28 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedDelay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% PIT MIN: Missed field goal
2 Q1 11:47 G. Joseph missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 8 of 11 from 45+ before +8% PIT MIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:22 The Steelers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +3% PIT PIT: Missed field goal
4 Q1 9:41 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Chase Claypool), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1446 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +4% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q1 6:58 The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% PIT PIT: Missed field goal
6 Q1 5:36 C. Boswell missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 20 of 22 from 45+ before +10% MIN PIT: Punt
7 Q2 14:47 G. Joseph made 38-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +3% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:39 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% PIT PIT: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Everson Griffen (MIN DE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Adam Thielen (MIN WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Joe Haden (PIT CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Kevin Dotson (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 3% · Vikings 97%

Final margin
Vikings by 8
Luck in points
7.2 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 15.2
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 15% · Vikings 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · Steelers · Vikings

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