Week 14 2021 · December 9, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Steelers at Vikings, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Steelers 36–28, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:36 left): C. Boswell missed a 49-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 28 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Vikings about even · −18 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 2, Vikings win 8.
- 1 PIT 42 MIN 27
- 2 PIT 26 MIN 23
- 3 PIT 34 MIN 37
- 4 PIT 26 MIN 30
- 5 PIT 10 MIN 19
- 6 PIT 30 MIN 41
- 7 PIT 10 MIN 27
- 8 PIT 17 MIN 37
- 9 PIT 19 MIN 44
- 10 PIT 10 MIN 44
Your call
Did the Vikings earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 18% of them, Vikings 82%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 2.0% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 4.4% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 19.8% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 20.4% |
| Vikings by 17+ | 41.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Joseph, 53 yds missed · 70% expected
- C. Boswell, 49 yds missed · 81% expected
- G. Joseph, 38 yds made · 91% expected
- G. Joseph, 42 yds made · 87% expected
- G. Joseph, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- Extra point missed · 96% expected
Penalties: Steelers 10 for 85 yards, Vikings 11 for 102 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:28 | Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q1 9:41 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Chase Claypool), 15 yards | +4% MIN +1.0 pts |
| Q1 8:13 | Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Mackensie Alexander), 5 yards | +3% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 13:11 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Josh Metellus), 10 yards | +2% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 11:43 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% PIT +1.3 pts |
| Q2 9:55 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings, 15 yards | +2% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q2 9:55 | Illegal Double-Team Block on the Steelers (Benny Snell Jr.), 15 yards | +1% MIN +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:20 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Vikings (Xavier Woods), 15 yards | +1% PIT +1.5 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 10 yards | 0% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:21 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.4 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Miles Killebrew), 10 yards | +1% MIN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 14:09 | Defensive Offside on the Vikings (D.J. Wonnum), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:39 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:07 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 5 yards | 0% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:04 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MIN +1.8 pts |
| Q3 3:44 | Taunting on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 15 yards | 0% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q3 0:52 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Mackensie Alexander), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:55 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Cameron Dantzler), 7 yards | 0% PIT +2.4 pts |
| Q4 9:03 | Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:39 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q4 2:05 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Steelers, 10 yards | +1% MIN +0.9 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Vikings’ chance of winning
As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:28 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedDelay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% PIT | MIN: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 11:47 | G. Joseph missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 8 of 11 from 45+ before | +8% PIT | MIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 9:41 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Chase Claypool), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1446 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 | +4% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:58 | The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% PIT | PIT: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q1 5:36 | C. Boswell missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 20 of 22 from 45+ before | +10% MIN | PIT: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 3:31 | The Vikings missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time | +3% PIT | MIN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 14:47 | G. Joseph made a 38-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +3% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 3:39 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% PIT | PIT: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Everson Griffen (MIN DE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out · 0.8 pts
- Adam Thielen (MIN WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Joe Haden (PIT CB), out · 1.1 pts
- Kevin Dotson (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 2% · Vikings 98%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 8
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vikings by 11.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 18% · Vikings 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · 
Steelers · 
Vikings
More from Week 14 2021
- Falcons at Panthers ATL 29–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns CLE 24–22 · replay 71% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington DAL 27–20 · replay 79% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans TEN 20–0 · replay 90% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 48–9 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Jets NO 30–9 · replay 61% for the winner
- Seahawks at Texans SEA 33–13 · replay 87% for the winner
- Lions at Broncos DEN 38–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Giants at Chargers LAC 37–21 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bills at Buccaneers TB 33–27 · replay 74% for the winner
- 49ers at Bengals SF 26–23 · replay 38% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 45–30 · replay 87% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 30–23 · replay 68% for the winner