2021 season · final

Minnesota Vikings, 2021: game by game

The Vikings went 8–9 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.3 wins. Luck added 1.7: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–8.

Every game

How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Bengals	L 24–27	19%	−19
Week 2	@ Cardinals	L 33–34	28%	−28
Week 3	vs Seahawks	W 30–17	40%	+60
Week 4	vs Browns	L 7–14	35%	−35
Week 5	vs Lions	W 19–17	50%	+50
Week 6	@ Panthers	W 34–28	84%	+16
Week 8	vs Cowboys	L 16–20	6%	−6
Week 9	@ Ravens	L 31–34	7%	−7
Week 10	@ Chargers	W 27–20	23%	+77
Week 11	vs Packers	W 34–31	46%	+54
Week 12	@ 49ers	L 26–34	15%	−15
Week 13	@ Lions	L 27–29	78%	−78
Week 14	vs Steelers	W 36–28	82%	+18
Week 15	@ Bears	W 17–9	46%	+54
Week 16	vs Rams	L 23–30	15%	−15
Week 17	@ Packers	L 10–37	2%	−2
Week 18	vs Bears	W 31–17	55%	+45

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −19 @ CIN

Wk 2 −28 @ ARI

Wk 3 +60 vs SEA

Wk 4 −35 vs CLE

Wk 5 +50 vs DET

Wk 6 +16 @ CAR

Wk 8 −6 vs DAL

Wk 9 −7 @ BAL

Wk 10 +77 @ LAC

Wk 11 +54 vs GB

Wk 12 −15 @ SF

Wk 13 −78 @ DET

Wk 14 +18 vs PIT

Wk 15 +54 @ CHI

Wk 16 −15 vs LA

Wk 17 −2 @ GB

Wk 18 +45 vs CHI

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.43	+20.6
Injuries	+0.08	+0.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.02	+3.9
Rest	−0.04	−1.8
Judgment calls	−0.45	−15.5
Kicks	−0.77	−3.3