luckadjusted

Week 4 2021 · October 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Vikings, Week 4 2021: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Vikings 14–7 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:33 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 18 yards, wiping out the play, worth 30 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Cleveland Browns 14
Minnesota Vikings 7

October 3, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Browns −1

Luck index +37 Browns lucky · −37 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 6, Vikings win 4.

  1. 1 CLE 30 MIN 7
  2. 2 CLE 27 MIN 10
  3. 3 CLE 30 MIN 17
  4. 4 CLE 27 MIN 20
  5. 5 CLE 21 MIN 17
  6. 6 CLE 19 MIN 17
  7. 7 CLE 18 MIN 20
  8. 8 CLE 24 MIN 30
  9. 9 CLE 16 MIN 26
  10. 10 CLE 13 MIN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 63% of them, Vikings 37%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+16.0%
Browns by 9–1617.1%
Browns by 1–826.9%
Level after regulation2.9%
Vikings by 1–818.8%
Vikings by 9–1612.3%
Vikings by 17+6.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 2.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 53 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:19 The Browns converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +10% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:35 The Browns converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +11% CLE CLE: Field goal
3 Q3 11:29 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% CLE MIN: Punt
4 Q3 6:00 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Tyler Conklin), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1272 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +15% CLE CLE: Punt
5 Q4 15:00 The Vikings converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +12% MIN MIN: Punt
6 Q4 1:24 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% CLE MIN: End of game
7 Q4 0:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 18 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +30% MIN MIN: End of game
8 Q4 0:03 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +13% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jarvis Landry (CLE WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 57% · Vikings 43%

Final margin
Browns by 7
Luck in points
4.2 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
Browns 63% · Vikings 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2021 games · Browns · Vikings

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