luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2021 · October 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Vikings, Week 4 2021: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Vikings 14–7, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:00 left): Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Tyler Conklin), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 14
Minnesota Vikings 7

October 3, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Browns −1

Luck index +35 Browns lucky · −35 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 6, Vikings win 4.

  1. 1 CLE 47 MIN 21
  2. 2 CLE 27 MIN 10
  3. 3 CLE 26 MIN 13
  4. 4 CLE 32 MIN 23
  5. 5 CLE 30 MIN 26
  6. 6 CLE 33 MIN 31
  7. 7 CLE 17 MIN 20
  8. 8 CLE 30 MIN 38
  9. 9 CLE 9 MIN 22
  10. 10 CLE 5 MIN 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 65% of them, Vikings 35%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+17.3%
Browns by 9–1619.4%
Browns by 1–827.0%
Level after regulation2.1%
Vikings by 1–818.4%
Vikings by 9–1611.1%
Vikings by 17+4.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 7, without the luck Browns by 5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 53 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 7 for 73 yards, Vikings 7 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:17 Illegal Forward Pass on the Vikings (Kirk Cousins), 5 yards +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q2 3:58 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.8 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +4% MIN +1.3 pts
Q2 1:33 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Eric Kendricks), 1 yard +9% CLE +3.1 pts
Q2 1:16 Defensive Delay of Game on the Vikings (Sheldon Richardson), 1 yard · pre-snap +2% MIN 0.0 pts
Q2 1:04 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.1 pts
Q2 0:45 Intentional Grounding on the Browns (Baker Mayfield), 10 yards +4% MIN +0.6 pts
Q3 10:41 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +3% MIN +1.2 pts
Q3 6:42 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Malik McDowell), 15 yards +2% MIN +1.1 pts
Q3 6:00 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Tyler Conklin), 10 yards, wiping out the play +15% CLE +3.7 pts
Q3 1:29 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIN +1.1 pts
Q4 13:08 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (K.J. Osborn), 10 yards +10% CLE +1.5 pts
Q4 11:17 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Harrison Hand), 10 yards +6% CLE +0.9 pts
Q4 0:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 18 yards, wiping out the play +8% MIN +5.2 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:33 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Eric Kendricks), 1 yardJudgment calls · 0 flags in 2163 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:35 The Browns converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +11% CLE CLE: Field goal
3 Q3 6:00 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Tyler Conklin), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1272 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +15% CLE CLE: Punt
4 Q4 15:00 The Vikings converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +12% MIN MIN: Punt
5 Q4 13:08 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (K.J. Osborn), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 275 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +10% CLE CLE: Punt
6 Q4 1:24 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +10% CLE MIN: End of game
7 Q4 0:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 18 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% MIN MIN: End of game
8 Q4 0:03 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +9% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jarvis Landry (CLE WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 78% · Vikings 22%

Final margin
Browns by 7
Luck in points
2.0 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Browns 65% · Vikings 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2021 games · Browns · Vikings

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