Week 4 2021 · September 30, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Jaguars at Bengals, Week 4 2021: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Jaguars 24–21, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bengals win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.9 points to the Bengals.
The Bengals won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 42%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bengals were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:08 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 3, worth 27 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 21 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Bengals lucky · −58 Jaguars
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jaguars win 6, Bengals win 4.
- 1 JAX 37 CIN 14
- 2 JAX 33 CIN 17
- 3 JAX 27 CIN 16
- 4 JAX 37 CIN 29
- 5 JAX 27 CIN 23
- 6 JAX 36 CIN 34
- 7 JAX 7 CIN 9
- 8 JAX 24 CIN 30
- 9 JAX 20 CIN 30
- 10 JAX 17 CIN 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Bengals won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 42%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained | +0.18 | +0.06 | better by 0.12 |
| Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.33 | +0.22 | worse by 0.11 |
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.33 | +0.11 | better by 0.22 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.13 | worse by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jaguars win 58% of them, Bengals 42%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jaguars by 17+ | 12.9% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 15.9% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 29.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 12.7% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 5.3% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Bengals by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 11.2.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
- E. McPherson, 35 yds made · 94% expected
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:25 | E. McPherson missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him | +11% JAX | CIN: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 5:12 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +9% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 3:17 | The Jaguars converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +10% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 1:19 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +8% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:08 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +27% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 3:55 | Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +13% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 2:00 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% JAX | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | E. McPherson made 35-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him | +12% CIN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.1 pts
- Chidobe Awuzie (CIN CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Xavier Su'a-Filo (CIN G), out · 0.3 pts
- Fred Johnson (CIN OT), out · 0.2 pts
- Josh Lambo (JAX K), out · 0.3 pts
- Roy Robertson-Harris (JAX DT), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jaguars 2% · Bengals 98%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 3
- Luck in points
- 8.2 for the Jaguars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 11.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Jaguars 58% · Bengals 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2021 games · 
Jaguars · 
Bengals
More from Week 4 2021
- Panthers at Cowboys DAL 36–28 · replay 78% for the winner
- Browns at Vikings CLE 14–7 · replay 63% for the winner
- Lions at Bears CHI 24–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Texans at Bills BUF 40–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Colts at Dolphins IND 27–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Chiefs at Eagles KC 42–30 · replay 95% for the winner
- Giants at Saints NYG 27–21 · replay 17% for the winner
- Titans at Jets NYJ 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Washington at Falcons WAS 34–30 · replay 70% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams ARI 37–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SEA 28–21 · replay 8% for the winner
- Ravens at Broncos BAL 23–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Steelers at Packers GB 27–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Patriots TB 19–17 · replay 77% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 28–14 · replay 78% for the winner