luckadjusted

Week 4 2021 · October 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Falcons, Week 4 2021: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Falcons 34–30 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.8 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:46 left): Washington converted 3rd & 7, worth 38 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 34
Atlanta Falcons 30

October 3, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Washington −1

Luck index +30 Washington lucky · −30 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 7, Falcons win 3.

  1. 1 WAS 27 ATL 0
  2. 2 WAS 39 ATL 20
  3. 3 WAS 30 ATL 16
  4. 4 WAS 27 ATL 16
  5. 5 WAS 35 ATL 28
  6. 6 WAS 29 ATL 24
  7. 7 WAS 30 ATL 27
  8. 8 WAS 27 ATL 30
  9. 9 WAS 30 ATL 37
  10. 10 WAS 19 ATL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 70% of them, Falcons 30%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+22.5%
Washington by 9–1620.8%
Washington by 1–826.5%
Level after regulation4.6%
Falcons by 1–815.3%
Falcons by 9–167.4%
Falcons by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Washington by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Washington by 12.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:17 Washington were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +12% ATL WAS: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:19 The Falcons converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +10% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q3 15:00 Return touchdown by WashingtonSpecial teams +20% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q3 11:15 The Falcons converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +12% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:58 Washington converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +14% WAS WAS: Field goal
6 Q3 5:35 D. Hopkins made 21-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +15% ATL WAS: Punt
7 Q3 1:26 Roughing the Passer on Washington (Chase Young), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1041 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +17% ATL ATL: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:46 Washington converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +38% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Gono (ATL T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Russell Gage (ATL WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kendall Sheffield (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Benjamin St-Juste (WAS CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 98% · Falcons 2%

Final margin
Washington by 4
Luck in points
8.1 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Washington 70% · Falcons 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2021 games · Washington · Falcons

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