luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2021 · October 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Falcons, Week 4 2021: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Falcons 34–30, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 15:00 left): Return touchdown by Washington, worth 20 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 34
Atlanta Falcons 30

October 3, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Washington −1

Luck index +30 Washington lucky · −30 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 7, Falcons win 3.

  1. 1 WAS 37 ATL 10
  2. 2 WAS 28 ATL 10
  3. 3 WAS 24 ATL 10
  4. 4 WAS 20 ATL 10
  5. 5 WAS 30 ATL 22
  6. 6 WAS 26 ATL 20
  7. 7 WAS 24 ATL 21
  8. 8 WAS 34 ATL 37
  9. 9 WAS 16 ATL 24
  10. 10 WAS 17 ATL 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 70% of them, Falcons 30%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+20.3%
Washington by 9–1622.1%
Washington by 1–827.1%
Level after regulation4.5%
Falcons by 1–816.0%
Falcons by 9–166.8%
Falcons by 17+3.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Washington by 4, without the luck Washington by 10.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 6 for 85 yards, Falcons 7 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:26 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% WAS +2.8 pts
Q2 12:12 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.5 pts
Q2 7:49 False Start on the Falcons (Hayden Hurst), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q2 4:53 Encroachment on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 2:41 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Fabian Moreau), 2 yards +1% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 1:57 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington, 28 yards +10% ATL +2.6 pts
Q3 13:17 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (William Jackson III), 27 yards +8% ATL +1.7 pts
Q3 1:26 Roughing the Passer on Washington (Chase Young), 15 yards, wiping out the play +17% ATL +4.0 pts
Q4 10:00 False Start on Washington (Ricky Seals-Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.5 pts
Q4 9:22 Illegal Contact on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 5 yards +3% WAS +1.1 pts
Q4 7:16 Illegal Formation on Washington (Terry McLaurin), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ATL +1.1 pts
Q4 3:52 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL 0.0 pts
Q4 3:52 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Dante Fowler), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:17 Washington was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +12% ATL WAS: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:57 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington, 28 yardsJudgment calls +10% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q3 15:00 Return touchdown by WashingtonSpecial teams +20% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q3 11:15 The Falcons converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:58 Washington converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +11% WAS WAS: Field goal
6 Q3 1:26 Roughing the Passer on Washington (Chase Young), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1041 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +17% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:52 Washington’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedFalse Start on Washington, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsDefensive Offside on the Falcons (Dante Fowler), 4 yardsPre-snap flags · 9 flags in 1684 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +10% ATL WAS: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:46 Washington converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +19% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Gono (ATL T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Russell Gage (ATL WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kendall Sheffield (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Benjamin St-Juste (WAS CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 100% · Falcons 0%

Final margin
Washington by 4
Luck in points
6.3 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Washington 70% · Falcons 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2021 games · Washington · Falcons

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