2021 season · final
Washington Football Team, 2021: game by game
Washington went 7–10 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.1 wins. Luck cost them 0.1: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–4.
Every game
How often Washington win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Chargers | L 16–20 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 2 | vs Giants | W 30–29 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 3 | @ Bills | L 21–43 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 4 | @ Falcons | W 34–30 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 5 | vs Saints | L 22–33 | 65% | −65 |
| Week 6 | vs Chiefs | L 13–31 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 7 | @ Packers | L 10–24 | 46% | −46 |
| Week 8 | @ Broncos | L 10–17 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 10 | vs Buccaneers | W 29–19 | 18% | +82 |
| Week 11 | @ Panthers | W 27–21 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 12 | vs Seahawks | W 17–15 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 13 | @ Raiders | W 17–15 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 14 | vs Cowboys | L 20–27 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 15 | @ Eagles | L 17–27 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 16 | @ Cowboys | L 14–56 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 17 | vs Eagles | L 16–20 | 42% | −42 |
| Week 18 | @ Giants | W 22–7 | 93% | +7 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Washington’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.26 | +9.8 |
| Judgment calls | +0.18 | +3.4 |
| Rest | −0.07 | −2.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.21 | −11.6 |
| Kicks | −0.28 | −10.1 |
| Injuries | −0.34 | −14.5 |