luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Washington, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat Washington 33–22, but the replays lean toward Washington: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Saints were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:00 left): Roughing the Kicker on the Saints, 15 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

New Orleans Saints 33
Washington Football Team 22

October 10, 2021 · FedExField · Closing line: Saints −2.5

Luck index +65 Saints very lucky · −65 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 4, Washington wins 6.

  1. 1 NO 38 WAS 17
  2. 2 NO 29 WAS 17
  3. 3 NO 19 WAS 13
  4. 4 NO 18 WAS 16
  5. 5 NO 27 WAS 30
  6. 6 NO 10 WAS 15
  7. 7 NO 7 WAS 17
  8. 8 NO 22 WAS 36
  9. 9 NO 19 WAS 38
  10. 10 NO 17 WAS 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 35% of them, Washington 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+6.2%
Saints by 9–1610.8%
Saints by 1–817.5%
Level after regulation1.9%
Washington by 1–824.9%
Washington by 9–1617.8%
Washington by 17+20.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to Washington: the final margin was Saints by 11, without the luck Saints by 17.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 6 for 45 yards, Washington 5 for 37 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:27 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards +4% NO +1.1 pts
Q1 1:00 Roughing the Kicker on the Saints, 15 yards +13% WAS +4.0 pts
Q1 0:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Bradley Roby), 16 yards +2% WAS +1.0 pts
Q2 12:24 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington (William Jackson III), 15 yards +3% NO +1.0 pts
Q2 10:14 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards +2% NO +1.1 pts
Q2 7:00 Delay of Game on the Saints, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q2 1:49 False Start on Washington, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% NO +0.1 pts
Q3 12:57 Ineligible Downfield Pass on Washington, 1 yard, wiping out the play +2% WAS 0.0 pts
Q4 14:09 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% WAS +0.6 pts
Q4 12:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Demario Davis), 4 yards 0% NO +0.3 pts
Q4 8:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 4 yards +4% WAS +1.0 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:23 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:35 The Saints fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% WAS NO: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:00 Roughing the Kicker on the Saints, 15 yardsJudgment calls +13% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:41 Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +12% WAS WAS: Turnover
5 Q3 9:56 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +5% NO WAS: Punt
6 Q4 15:00 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% NO NO: Punt
7 Q4 14:09 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% WAS WAS: Turnover
8 Q4 10:08 Washington converted 4th & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +11% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out · 0.6 pts
  • Cam Sims (WAS WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dyami Brown (WAS WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Terron Armstead (NO T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Wil Lutz (NO K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C/G), out · 0.3 pts
  • David Onyemata (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (NO LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 100% · Washington 0%

Final margin
Saints by 11
Luck in points
6.9 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 17.9
Replay with same day's form
Saints 35% · Washington 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Saints · Washington

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