luckadjusted

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Washington, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat Washington 33–22, but Washington played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Saints were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:23 left): the Saints converted 3rd & 7, worth 21 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 33
Washington Football Team 22

October 10, 2021 · FedExField · Closing line: Saints −2.5

Luck index +66 Saints very lucky · −66 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 3, Washington win 7.

  1. 1 NO 34 WAS 16
  2. 2 NO 31 WAS 21
  3. 3 NO 27 WAS 24
  4. 4 NO 20 WAS 22
  5. 5 NO 20 WAS 24
  6. 6 NO 27 WAS 34
  7. 7 NO 16 WAS 27
  8. 8 NO 17 WAS 32
  9. 9 NO 31 WAS 51
  10. 10 NO 6 WAS 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 34% of them, Washington 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+5.9%
Saints by 9–1610.8%
Saints by 1–817.0%
Level after regulation2.4%
Washington by 1–824.4%
Washington by 9–1619.0%
Washington by 17+20.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 19.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 45 yds made · 76% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:23 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +21% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:35 The Saints fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% WAS NO: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:00 Roughing the Kicker on the Saints, 15 yardsJudgment calls +13% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:41 Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% WAS WAS: Turnover
5 Q4 13:53 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% NO WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 12:16 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:08 Washington converted 4th & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +12% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q4 6:12 The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% NO NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out · 0.6 pts
  • Cam Sims (WAS WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dyami Brown (WAS WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Terron Armstead (NO T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Wil Lutz (NO K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C/G), out · 0.3 pts
  • David Onyemata (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (NO LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 100% · Washington 0%

Final margin
Saints by 11
Luck in points
8.0 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 19.0
Replay with same day's form
Saints 34% · Washington 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Saints · Washington

More from Week 5 2021