Week 5 2021 · October 11, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Colts at Ravens, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the Colts 31–25, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Colts.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:04 left): R. Blankenship missed a 47-yard field goal, worth 20 points of win probability to the Ravens. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:18 left): Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Tavon Young), 15 yards.
Final (OT)
 Indianapolis Colts | 25 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Ravens lucky · −29 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colts win 3, Ravens win 7.
- 1 IND 35 BAL 17
- 2 IND 31 BAL 23
- 3 IND 24 BAL 21
- 4 IND 24 BAL 26
- 5 IND 28 BAL 33
- 6 IND 37 BAL 45
- 7 IND 34 BAL 45
- 8 IND 10 BAL 25
- 9 IND 24 BAL 44
- 10 IND 9 BAL 37
Your call
Did the Ravens earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colts win 29% of them, Ravens 71%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colts by 17+ | 4.5% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 7.3% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.0% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 24.4% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 26.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Tucker, 23 yds made · 99% expected
- R. Blankenship, 37 yds made · 91% expected
- R. Blankenship, 43 yds made · 83% expected
- R. Blankenship, 37 yds blocked · 91% expected
- R. Blankenship, 47 yds missed · 73% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Colts 5 for 45 yards, Ravens 8 for 74 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:22 | False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:58 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards | +2% BAL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 4:36 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +3% IND +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:36 | Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.1 pts |
| Q2 1:09 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Anthony Averett), 9 yards | +6% IND +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:03 | Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:59 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 9 yards | +1% IND +0.8 pts |
| Q3 8:48 | Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Shaquille Leonard), 15 yards | +5% BAL +1.8 pts |
| Q3 7:32 | False Start on the Ravens, 6 yards · pre-snap | +4% IND +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:49 | Illegal Forward Pass on the Colts (Shaquille Leonard), 5 yards | +1% BAL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:06 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Ravens (Justin Houston), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +3% IND +1.7 pts |
| Q4 0:26 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards | +6% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:18 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Tavon Young), 15 yards | +21% IND +1.5 pts |
Colts penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:11 | The Colts converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +8% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 1:43 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +6% IND | BAL: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 0:10 | The Colts converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +9% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 7:16 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% BAL | BAL: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 6:49 | The Ravens fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Illegal Forward Pass on the Colts (Shaquille Leonard), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2073 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +7% IND | BAL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 0:39 | The Ravens’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +19% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:18 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Tavon Young), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 180 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +21% IND | IND: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | The game turned hereR. Blankenship missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 3 of 7 from 45+ before | +20% BAL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
- Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- DeShon Elliott (BAL S), out · 0.4 pts
- DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out · 0.3 pts
- J.K. Dobbins (BAL RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Tyre Phillips (BAL G/T), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Quenton Nelson (IND G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Kwity Paye (IND DE), out · 0.7 pts
- Quenton Nelson (IND G/C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Braden Smith (IND T/G), out · 0.4 pts
- T.J. Carrie (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Rock Ya-Sin (IND CB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colts 36% · Ravens 64%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 6
- Luck in points
- 4.8 for the Ravens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Colts 29% · Ravens 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · 
Colts · 
Ravens
More from Week 5 2021
- Rams at Seahawks LA 26–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Jets vs Falcons ATL 27–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- Broncos at Steelers PIT 27–19 · replay 49% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings MIN 19–17 · replay 50% for the winner
- Packers at Bengals GB 25–22 · replay 85% for the winner
- Dolphins at Buccaneers TB 45–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Patriots at Texans NE 25–22 · replay 75% for the winner
- Saints at Washington NO 33–22 · replay 35% for the winner
- Eagles at Panthers PHI 21–18 · replay 44% for the winner
- Titans at Jaguars TEN 37–19 · replay 65% for the winner
- Bears at Raiders CHI 20–9 · replay 49% for the winner
- Browns at Chargers LAC 47–42 · replay 50% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 44–20 · replay 73% for the winner
- 49ers at Cardinals ARI 17–10 · replay 27% for the winner
- Bills at Chiefs BUF 38–20 · replay 40% for the winner