luckadjusted

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Vikings, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Lions 19–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 2.9 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): G. Joseph made 54-yard field goal, worth 46 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Detroit Lions 17
Minnesota Vikings 19

October 10, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −10

Luck index +49 Vikings lucky · −49 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 5, Vikings win 5.

  1. 1 DET 36 MIN 10
  2. 2 DET 27 MIN 10
  3. 3 DET 17 MIN 6
  4. 4 DET 26 MIN 19
  5. 5 DET 23 MIN 20
  6. 6 DET 18 MIN 20
  7. 7 DET 19 MIN 25
  8. 8 DET 7 MIN 16
  9. 9 DET 7 MIN 21
  10. 10 DET 13 MIN 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 49% of them, Vikings 51%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+12.6%
Lions by 9–1614.8%
Lions by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation5.2%
Vikings by 1–822.1%
Vikings by 9–1614.1%
Vikings by 17+11.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 7.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • G. Joseph, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Joseph, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • A. Seibert, 52 yds made · 67% expected
  • G. Joseph, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • G. Joseph, 49 yds missed · 78% expected
  • A. Seibert, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • G. Joseph, 54 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:57 The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +12% MIN MIN: Field goal
2 Q2 14:18 The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% MIN MIN: Field goal
3 Q2 12:16 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Chris Herndon), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 852 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +8% DET DET: Punt
4 Q3 8:43 Illegal Crackback on the Vikings (Chris Herndon), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 852 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +8% DET DET: Punt
5 Q4 3:56 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% MIN MIN: Missed field goal
6 Q4 2:00 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +34% DET MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 0:37 The Lions’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +21% DET –
8 Q4 0:03 G. Joseph made 54-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 4 of 5 from 45+ before +46% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cameron Dantzler (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Taylor Decker (DET T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Frank Ragnow (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Frank Ragnow (DET C), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Romeo Okwara (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Romeo Okwara (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kevin Strong (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 14% · Vikings 86%

Final margin
Vikings by 2
Luck in points
5.1 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 7.1
Replay with same day's form
Lions 49% · Vikings 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Lions · Vikings

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