luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2021 NFL season · October 7, 2021–October 11

Week 5 2021: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Saints beat Washington 33–22 in a game they win 35% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 5 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bears 20–9 @ Raiders 34% 49% Coin flip
Eagles 21–18 @ Panthers 43% 44% Coin flip
Bills 38–20 @ Chiefs 43% 40% Lucky
Steelers 27–19 vs Broncos 44% 49% Coin flip

Week 5 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Cardinals W 17–10 vs 49ers 27% +73
2 Saints W 33–22 @ Washington 35% +65
3 Bills W 38–20 @ Chiefs 40% +60
4 Eagles W 21–18 @ Panthers 44% +56
5 Steelers W 27–19 vs Broncos 49% +51
6 Bears W 20–9 @ Raiders 49% +51
7 Chargers W 47–42 vs Browns 50% +50
8 Vikings W 19–17 vs Lions 50% +50
9 Titans W 37–19 @ Jaguars 65% +35
10 Ravens W 31–25 vs Colts 71% +29
11 Rams W 26–17 @ Seahawks 71% +29
12 Cowboys W 44–20 vs Giants 73% +27
13 Patriots W 25–22 @ Texans 75% +25
14 Falcons W 27–20 vs Jets 76% +24
15 Packers W 25–22 @ Bengals 85% +15
16 Buccaneers W 45–17 vs Dolphins 99% +1
17 Dolphins L 17–45 @ Buccaneers 1% −1
18 Bengals L 22–25 vs Packers 15% −15
19 Jets L 20–27 @ Falcons 24% −24
20 Texans L 22–25 vs Patriots 25% −25
21 Giants L 20–44 @ Cowboys 27% −27
22 Seahawks L 17–26 vs Rams 29% −29
23 Colts L 25–31 @ Ravens 29% −29
24 Jaguars L 19–37 vs Titans 35% −35
25 Lions L 17–19 @ Vikings 50% −50
26 Browns L 42–47 @ Chargers 50% −50
27 Raiders L 9–20 vs Bears 51% −51
28 Broncos L 19–27 @ Steelers 51% −51
29 Panthers L 18–21 vs Eagles 56% −56
30 Chiefs L 20–38 vs Bills 60% −60
31 Washington L 22–33 vs Saints 65% −65
32 49ers L 10–17 @ Cardinals 73% −73