luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Cincinnati Bengals, 2021: game by game

The Bengals went 10–7 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.

Playoffs: 3–1, replay wins 1.5.

Every game

How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Vikings W 27–24 80% +20
Week 2 @ Bears L 17–20 63% −63
Week 3 @ Steelers W 24–10 85% +15
Week 4 vs Jaguars W 24–21 42% +58
Week 5 vs Packers L 22–25 14% −14
Week 6 @ Lions W 34–11 89% +11
Week 7 @ Ravens W 41–17 83% +17
Week 8 @ Jets L 31–34 38% −38
Week 9 vs Browns L 16–41 37% −37
Week 11 @ Raiders W 32–13 50% +50
Week 12 vs Steelers W 41–10 95% +5
Week 13 vs Chargers L 22–41 30% −30
Week 14 vs 49ers L 23–26 63% −63
Week 15 @ Broncos W 15–10 67% +33
Week 16 vs Ravens W 41–21 83% +17
Week 17 vs Chiefs W 34–31 15% +85
Week 18 @ Browns L 16–21 11% −11
Wild Card vs Raiders W 26–19 70% +30
Divisional round @ Titans W 19–16 13% +87
AFC Championship @ Chiefs W 27–24 20% +80
Super Bowl vs Rams L 20–23 51% −51

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Judgment calls+26.6+1.56
Kicks+21.2+1.25
Injuries+5.7+0.34
Rest+2.2+0.13
3rd & 4th downs+0.5+0.03
Fumble bounces−3.1−0.19