luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2021 season · final

Cincinnati Bengals, 2021: game by game

The Bengals went 10–7 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.

Playoffs: 3–1, replay wins 1.6.

Every game

How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Vikings W 27–24 81% +19
Week 2 @ Bears L 17–20 68% −68
Week 3 @ Steelers W 24–10 84% +16
Week 4 vs Jaguars W 24–21 44% +56
Week 5 vs Packers L 22–25 15% −15
Week 6 @ Lions W 34–11 90% +10
Week 7 @ Ravens W 41–17 83% +17
Week 8 @ Jets L 31–34 40% −40
Week 9 vs Browns L 16–41 37% −37
Week 11 @ Raiders W 32–13 49% +51
Week 12 vs Steelers W 41–10 96% +4
Week 13 vs Chargers L 22–41 29% −29
Week 14 vs 49ers L 23–26 63% −63
Week 15 @ Broncos W 15–10 72% +28
Week 16 vs Ravens W 41–21 84% +16
Week 17 vs Chiefs W 34–31 17% +83
Week 18 @ Browns L 16–21 11% −11
Wild Card vs Raiders W 26–19 69% +31
Divisional round @ Titans W 19–16 19% +81
AFC Championship @ Chiefs W 27–24 17% +83
Super Bowl vs Rams L 20–23 53% −53

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+0.64+21.2
Judgment calls+0.37+12.9
3rd & 4th downs+0.18+0.7
Injuries+0.12+4.3
Rest+0.06+2.2
Fumble bounces−0.58−3.9