luckadjusted

Super Bowl 2021 · February 13, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams vs Bengals, Super Bowl 2021: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Bengals 23–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Rams win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 5.6 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Rams were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:43 left): the Bengals were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 17 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 23
Cincinnati Bengals 20

February 13, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −4.5

Luck index +51 Rams lucky · −51 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 5, Bengals win 5.

  1. 1 LA 34 CIN 9
  2. 2 LA 37 CIN 23
  3. 3 LA 38 CIN 28
  4. 4 LA 20 CIN 14
  5. 5 LA 37 CIN 35
  6. 6 LA 17 CIN 19
  7. 7 LA 24 CIN 30
  8. 8 LA 23 CIN 35
  9. 9 LA 30 CIN 46
  10. 10 LA 19 CIN 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 49% of them, Bengals 51%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+13.1%
Rams by 9–1614.4%
Rams by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation4.5%
Bengals by 1–820.4%
Bengals by 9–1615.0%
Bengals by 17+12.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 6.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. McPherson, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Gay, 41 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:46 The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +11% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:55 The Rams converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:50 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% LA LA: Turnover
4 Q4 11:55 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Bengals, 14 yardsJudgment calls +11% LA CIN: Punt
5 Q4 5:00 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% LA LA: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:47 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Logan Wilson), 4 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1565 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +10% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:48 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +12% LA CIN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:43 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +17% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Larry Ogunjobi (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joe Bachie (CIN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 5% · Bengals 95%

Final margin
Rams by 3
Luck in points
9.3 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Rams 49% · Bengals 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Super Bowl 2021 games · Rams · Bengals