AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Bengals have won 52.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 54.0. Luck cost them 1.5 wins. Their luckiest season was 2023 (+3.1 wins), the unluckiest 2024 (−2.5).
2026: 6–2 so far, replay wins 5.8 (+0.2 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6–2 | 5.8 | +0.2 | 3–2 | +0.08 | – |
| 2025 | 6–11 | 7.3 | −1.3 | 3–5 | +1.01 | – |
| 2024 | 9–8 | 11.5 | −2.5 | 4–7 | +0.58 | – |
| 2023 | 9–8 | 5.9 | +3.1 | 5–4 | +0.76 | – |
| 2022 | 12–4 | 11.7 | +0.3 | 5–3 | +0.96 | 2–1 |
| 2021 | 10–7 | 9.6 | +0.4 | 4–5 | +0.74 | 3–1 |
| 2020 | 4–11–1 | 3.6 | +0.9 | 2–5–1 | −0.44 | – |
| 2019 | 2–14 | 4.4 | −2.4 | 0–8 | +0.12 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −1.3 | +0.05 | +0.12 | +0.24 | +0.50 | −0.33 | −0.27 |
| 2024 | −2.5 | +0.08 | −0.41 | +0.07 | +0.29 | +0.07 | +0.10 |
| 2023 | +3.1 | −0.06 | +0.24 | −0.39 | +0.38 | −0.17 | +0.19 |
| 2022 | +0.3 | +0.26 | −0.35 | +0.94 | +0.48 | +0.31 | +0.10 |
| 2021 | +0.4 | −0.58 | +0.64 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.12 | +0.18 |
| 2020 | +0.9 | −0.30 | −0.54 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −0.32 | −0.06 |
| 2019 | −2.4 | −0.50 | −0.36 | 0.00 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.30 |
| Since 2019 | −1.5 | −1.05 | −0.67 | +0.86 | +1.86 | −0.36 | −0.06 |
Are the Bengals lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Bengals have won 52.5 regular-season games from play worth 54.0: −1.5 wins of luck, the 16th-most of 32 teams.
Why have the Bengals had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from fumble bounces (−1.1 wins) and kicks (−0.7 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 23–37–1 since 2019, where the replays give them 27.6 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Bengals’ luckiest season?
2023: 9–8 from play worth 5.9 wins, +3.1 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2024: 9–8 from play worth 11.5 (−2.5).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Bengals’ luckiest wins
Wins the Bengals take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
The Bengals’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Bengals would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 18 | vs Browns | L 18–20 | 98% | −98 |
| 2022 Week 1 | vs Steelers | L 20–23 | 78% | −78 |
| 2024 Week 3 | vs Commanders | L 33–38 | 74% | −74 |
| 2024 Week 1 | vs Patriots | L 10–16 | 73% | −73 |
| 2024 Week 11 | @ Chargers | L 27–34 | 69% | −69 |
