AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Bengals have won 52.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 53.0. Luck cost them 0.5 wins. Their luckiest season was 2023 (+2.8 wins), the unluckiest 2019 (−2.4).
2026: 2–0 so far, replay wins 1.4 (+0.6 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2–0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 1–0 | −3.15 | – |
| 2025 | 6–11 | 7.1 | −1.1 | 3–5 | +1.90 | – |
| 2024 | 9–8 | 10.9 | −1.9 | 4–7 | +0.11 | – |
| 2023 | 9–8 | 6.2 | +2.8 | 5–4 | +0.70 | – |
| 2022 | 12–4 | 11.3 | +0.7 | 5–3 | +1.94 | 2–1 |
| 2021 | 10–7 | 9.4 | +0.6 | 4–5 | +1.56 | 3–1 |
| 2020 | 4–11–1 | 3.6 | +0.9 | 2–5–1 | −0.03 | – |
| 2019 | 2–14 | 4.4 | −2.4 | 0–8 | +1.40 | – |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Bengals take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Bengals would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 18 | vs Browns | L 18–20 | 98% | −98 |
| 2022 Week 1 | vs Steelers | L 20–23 | 87% | −87 |
| 2024 Week 3 | vs Commanders | L 33–38 | 82% | −82 |
| 2021 Week 2 | @ Bears | L 17–20 | 63% | −63 |
| 2021 Week 14 | vs 49ers | L 23–26 | 63% | −63 |
