Divisional round 2021 · January 22, 2022
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bengals at Titans, Divisional round 2021: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Titans 19–16, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 39 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Before kickoff the Titans were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): E. McPherson made a 52-yard field goal, worth 26 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 Cincinnati Bengals | 19 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +81 Bengals very lucky · −81 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bengals win 2, Titans win 8.
- 1 CIN 20 TEN 6
- 2 CIN 37 TEN 34
- 3 CIN 27 TEN 30
- 4 CIN 24 TEN 29
- 5 CIN 24 TEN 32
- 6 CIN 24 TEN 36
- 7 CIN 19 TEN 34
- 8 CIN 13 TEN 33
- 9 CIN 0 TEN 24
- 10 CIN 13 TEN 44
Your call
Did the Bengals earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bengals win 19% of them, Titans 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bengals by 17+ | 1.7% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 4.4% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 11.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 20.1% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 21.9% |
| Titans by 17+ | 39.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 38 yds made · 91% expected
- E. McPherson, 45 yds made · 82% expected
- E. McPherson, 54 yds made · 67% expected
- R. Bullock, 34 yds made · 93% expected
- E. McPherson, 52 yds made · 70% expected
Penalties: Bengals 6 for 46 yards, Titans 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:52 | Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 8:39 | Fair Catch Interference on the Bengals (Tre Flowers), 15 yards | +4% TEN +1.3 pts |
| Q2 11:30 | Offensive Holding on the Titans (Racey McMath), 10 yards | +3% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:07 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bengals, 1 yard · pre-snap | +1% TEN 0.0 pts |
| Q2 1:47 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.4 pts |
| Q3 6:48 | Taunting on the Bengals (Eli Apple), 15 yards | +4% TEN +1.2 pts |
| Q3 0:42 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:08 | False Start on the Bengals (Joe Mixon), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% TEN +0.6 pts |
Bengals penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 1:47 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedFalse Start on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% TEN | CIN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 1:40 | E. McPherson made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 13 of 17 from 45+ before | +10% CIN | CIN: End of half |
| 3 | Q4 12:13 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +8% TEN | CIN: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 8:06 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +7% CIN | TEN: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 7:21 | The Titans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +9% CIN | TEN: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 5:49 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +9% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 3:38 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% TEN | CIN: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | E. McPherson made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 14 of 18 from 45+ before | +26% CIN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Rashaan Evans (TEN LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Monty Rice (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Riley Reiff (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Larry Ogunjobi (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bengals 19% · Titans 81%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 3
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Bengals 19% · Titans 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2021 games · 
Bengals · 
Titans
More from Divisional round 2021
- 49ers at Packers SF 13–10 · replay 78% for the winner
- Rams at Buccaneers LA 30–27 · replay 42% for the winner
- Bills at Chiefs KC 42–36 · replay 70% for the winner