luckadjusted

Divisional round 2021 · January 23, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Buccaneers, Divisional round 2021: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Buccaneers 30–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Rams win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 2.2 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:46 left): the Buccaneers converted 4th & 1, worth 27 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 30
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

January 23, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −2.5

Luck index +57 Rams lucky · −57 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 4, Buccaneers win 6.

  1. 1 LA 54 TB 27
  2. 2 LA 34 TB 17
  3. 3 LA 40 TB 30
  4. 4 LA 30 TB 27
  5. 5 LA 27 TB 29
  6. 6 LA 33 TB 38
  7. 7 LA 31 TB 40
  8. 8 LA 10 TB 23
  9. 9 LA 21 TB 40
  10. 10 LA 20 TB 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 43% of them, Buccaneers 57%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+12.2%
Rams by 9–1613.0%
Rams by 1–816.7%
Level after regulation2.5%
Buccaneers by 1–820.4%
Buccaneers by 9–1615.3%
Buccaneers by 17+19.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 4.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Succop, 45 yds made · 75% expected
  • R. Succop, 48 yds missed · 70% expected
  • M. Gay, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • R. Succop, 31 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Gay, 47 yds missed · 76% expected
  • M. Gay, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:58 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% LA TB: Punt
2 Q1 0:40 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% LA TB: Field goal
3 Q2 14:28 The Rams converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 3353 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +17% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:45 The Rams converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +4% LA LA: Field goal
5 Q4 13:11 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% LA TB: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 2:32 The Rams fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TB LA: Field goal
7 Q4 0:46 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +27% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:04 M. Gay made 30-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +14% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tristan Wirfs (TB T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Cyril Grayson (TB WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Andrew Whitworth (LA T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Ernest Jones (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (LA FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 75% · Buccaneers 25%

Final margin
Rams by 3
Luck in points
1.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 4.3
Replay with same day's form
Rams 43% · Buccaneers 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2021 games · Rams · Buccaneers

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