Divisional round 2021 · January 22, 2022
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
49ers at Packers, Divisional round 2021: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Packers 13–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.6 points to the Packers.
An off day for the Packers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Packers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): R. Gould made 45-yard field goal, worth 31 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Final
 San Francisco 49ers | 13 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 49ers about even · −24 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 8, Packers win 2.
- 1 SF 32 GB 7
- 2 SF 30 GB 10
- 3 SF 26 GB 10
- 4 SF 20 GB 7
- 5 SF 27 GB 17
- 6 SF 20 GB 13
- 7 SF 19 GB 14
- 8 SF 19 GB 17
- 9 SF 14 GB 17
- 10 SF 3 GB 16
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Packers
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
43 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.20 | +0.17 | worse by 0.36 |
| 49ers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.02 | +0.07 | better by 0.09 |
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.02 | +0.22 | worse by 0.24 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.20 | +0.12 | better by 0.31 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 76% of them, Packers 24%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 23.7% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 23.3% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 25.6% |
| Level after regulation | 3.6% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 14.1% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 7.2% |
| Packers by 17+ | 2.6% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was 49ers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 3.0.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Crosby, 39 yds blocked · 85% expected
- R. Gould, 29 yds made · 95% expected
- M. Crosby, 33 yds made · 92% expected
- R. Gould, 45 yds made · 72% expected
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:40 | The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +11% GB | GB: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q2 0:03 | M. Crosby had a 39-yard field goal blockedKicks · 85% expected for him | +7% SF | GB: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 6:11 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +7% GB | SF: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 9:12 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +9% SF | SF: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 6:14 | The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +14% GB | SF: Opp touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 4:50 | Blocked punt by the 49ersSpecial teams | +25% SF | SF: Opp touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 3:40 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +7% SF | GB: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | R. Gould made 45-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 20 of 30 from 45+ before | +31% SF | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Elgton Jenkins (GB G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB WR), out · 0.5 pts
- Ambry Thomas (SF CB), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 68% · Packers 32%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 3
- Luck in points
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 3.0
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 76% · Packers 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2021 games · 
49ers · 
Packers
More from Divisional round 2021
- Bengals at Titans CIN 19–16 · replay 13% for the winner
- Rams at Buccaneers LA 30–27 · replay 43% for the winner
- Bills at Chiefs KC 42–36 · replay 72% for the winner