NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the 49ers have won 72 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 80.5. Luck cost them 8.5 wins. Their luckiest season was 2019 (+1.3 wins), the unluckiest 2024 (−4.5).
2026: 2–0 so far, replay wins 1.9 (+0.1 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2–0 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 0–0 | −3.12 | – |
| 2025 | 12–5 | 11.8 | +0.2 | 5–1 | +0.88 | 1–1 |
| 2024 | 6–11 | 10.5 | −4.5 | 2–6 | −1.30 | – |
| 2023 | 12–5 | 13.7 | −1.7 | 1–3 | −0.38 | 2–1 |
| 2022 | 13–4 | 11.9 | +1.1 | 3–1 | +0.50 | 2–1 |
| 2021 | 10–7 | 11.3 | −1.3 | 5–5 | −1.88 | 2–1 |
| 2020 | 6–10 | 9.7 | −3.7 | 3–5 | −1.07 | – |
| 2019 | 13–3 | 11.7 | +1.3 | 5–3 | +0.58 | 2–1 |
Luckiest wins
Wins the 49ers take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
Unluckiest losses
Losses the 49ers would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Week 13 | @ Seahawks | L 23–30 | 98% | −98 |
| 2021 Week 4 | vs Seahawks | L 21–28 | 92% | −92 |
| 2020 Week 4 | vs Eagles | L 20–25 | 87% | −87 |
| 2023 Week 8 | vs Bengals | L 17–31 | 86% | −86 |
| 2023 Super Bowl | @ Chiefs | L 22–25 | 84% | −84 |
