NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the 49ers have won 72 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 79.4. Luck cost them 7.4 wins. Their luckiest season was 2022 (+1.3 wins), the unluckiest 2024 (−3.9).
2026: 7–1 so far, replay wins 7.0 (0.0 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7–1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 3–0 | +0.02 | – |
| 2025 | 12–5 | 10.8 | +1.2 | 5–1 | −0.39 | 1–1 |
| 2024 | 6–11 | 9.9 | −3.9 | 2–6 | −0.92 | – |
| 2023 | 12–5 | 14.0 | −2.0 | 1–3 | +0.15 | 2–1 |
| 2022 | 13–4 | 11.7 | +1.3 | 3–1 | +0.04 | 2–1 |
| 2021 | 10–7 | 11.4 | −1.4 | 5–5 | −0.85 | 2–1 |
| 2020 | 6–10 | 9.8 | −3.8 | 3–5 | −0.55 | – |
| 2019 | 13–3 | 11.8 | +1.2 | 5–3 | +0.77 | 2–1 |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +1.2 | +0.59 | +0.27 | +0.22 | −0.20 | −1.26 | +0.54 |
| 2024 | −3.9 | −0.35 | −0.51 | −0.14 | −0.46 | −0.79 | −0.13 |
| 2023 | −2.0 | −0.17 | −0.81 | −0.04 | +0.07 | +0.03 | −0.12 |
| 2022 | +1.3 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.09 | +0.02 | −0.25 | +0.47 |
| 2021 | −1.4 | −0.49 | −0.28 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.32 | −0.14 |
| 2020 | −3.8 | −1.22 | +0.12 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −1.49 | −0.20 |
| 2019 | +1.2 | −0.07 | −0.58 | 0.00 | +0.39 | −0.08 | +0.51 |
| Since 2019 | −7.4 | −1.62 | −1.85 | +0.13 | −0.87 | −4.16 | +0.94 |
Are the 49ers lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the 49ers have won 72 regular-season games from play worth 79.4: −7.4 wins of luck, the 4th-least of 32 teams.
Why have the 49ers had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from injuries (−4.2 wins) and kicks (−1.9 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 24–24 since 2019, where the replays give them 30.4 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the 49ers’ luckiest season?
2022: 13–4 from play worth 11.7 wins, +1.3 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2024: 6–11 from play worth 9.9 (−3.9).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The 49ers’ luckiest wins
Wins the 49ers take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
The 49ers’ unluckiest losses
Losses the 49ers would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Week 13 | @ Seahawks | L 23–30 | 98% | −98 |
| 2021 Week 4 | vs Seahawks | L 21–28 | 91% | −91 |
| 2020 Week 4 | vs Eagles | L 20–25 | 88% | −88 |
| 2023 Week 8 | vs Bengals | L 17–31 | 87% | −87 |
| Super Bowl LVIII (2024) | vs Chiefs | L 22–25 | 84% | −84 |
