luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Saints at 49ers, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Saints 13–0, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the 49ers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.4 points to the 49ers.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:06 left): the 49ers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 0
San Francisco 49ers 13

November 27, 2022 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −9.5

Luck index +44 49ers lucky · −44 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 4, 49ers win 6.

  1. 1 NO 29 SF 10
  2. 2 NO 27 SF 17
  3. 3 NO 19 SF 13
  4. 4 NO 20 SF 17
  5. 5 NO 14 SF 16
  6. 6 NO 19 SF 23
  7. 7 NO 6 SF 13
  8. 8 NO 10 SF 20
  9. 9 NO 21 SF 34
  10. 10 NO 3 SF 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 44% of them, 49ers 56%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+7.2%
Saints by 9–1612.6%
Saints by 1–823.3%
Level after regulation7.1%
49ers by 1–824.2%
49ers by 9–1615.7%
49ers by 17+9.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 0.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Gould, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Gould, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • W. Lutz, 48 yds missed · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:02 The Saints fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% SF NO: Punt
2 Q1 11:36 The 49ers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% SF SF: Field goal
3 Q2 9:40 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% SF SF: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 3:06 The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +9% NO SF: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:38 The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:40 Illegal Contact on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% SF SF: Field goal
7 Q3 4:11 W. Lutz missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 22 of 31 from 45+ beforeFalse Start on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% SF NO: Turnover
8 Q4 13:30 Roughing the Passer on the 49ers (Nick Bosa), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2421 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +6% NO NO: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Marquez Callaway (NO WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Pete Werner (NO LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 40% · 49ers 60%

Final margin
49ers by 13
Luck in points
12.3 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Saints 44% · 49ers 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Saints · 49ers

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