Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022
Saints at 49ers, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Saints 13–0, but the replays lean toward the Saints: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the 49ers.
The 49ers won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 77% of the time; with this day’s form, 37%. The numbers
Before kickoff the 49ers were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:40 left): Illegal Contact on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Final
 New Orleans Saints | 0 |
|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +63 49ers very lucky · −63 Saints
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saints win 6, 49ers win 4.
- 1 NO 28 SF 6
- 2 NO 31 SF 16
- 3 NO 26 SF 15
- 4 NO 23 SF 16
- 5 NO 16 SF 13
- 6 NO 19 SF 17
- 7 NO 17 SF 20
- 8 NO 13 SF 19
- 9 NO 7 SF 17
- 10 NO 7 SF 23
Your call
Did the 49ers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The 49ers won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 77% of the time; with this day’s form, 37%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
39 points apart for the 49ers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints offenseEPA per play gained | −0.03 | +0.07 | worse by 0.09 |
| Saints defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.05 | better by 0.02 |
| 49ers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.03 | +0.17 | worse by 0.13 |
| 49ers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.03 | +0.06 | better by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saints win 63% of them, 49ers 37%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saints by 17+ | 12.8% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 16.4% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 31.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.6% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 20.0% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 12.3% |
| 49ers by 17+ | 4.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Gould, 24 yds made · 97% expected
- R. Gould, 46 yds made · 79% expected
- W. Lutz, 48 yds missed · 75% expected
Penalties: Saints 6 for 46 yards, 49ers 7 for 64 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:19 | False Start on the Saints (Taysom Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% SF +0.7 pts |
| Q2 10:33 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the 49ers, 15 yards | +5% NO +1.4 pts |
| Q2 9:40 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards | +5% SF +1.9 pts |
| Q2 0:49 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers (George Kittle), 10 yards | +3% NO +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints, 6 yards | +1% SF +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:40 | Illegal Contact on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +8% SF +4.7 pts |
| Q3 12:29 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% NO +2.1 pts |
| Q3 12:07 | Roughing the Passer on the Saints, 15 yards | +2% SF +1.8 pts |
| Q3 11:44 | Illegal Shift on the 49ers (Kyle Juszczyk), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% NO +1.2 pts |
| Q3 4:11 | False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SF +0.4 pts |
| Q4 13:30 | Roughing the Passer on the 49ers (Nick Bosa), 15 yards | +6% NO +2.8 pts |
| Q4 8:55 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NO +0.8 pts |
| Q4 6:40 | Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 4 yards | +1% NO +1.6 pts |
Saints penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
49ers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:02 | The Saints fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% SF | NO: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:36 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% SF | SF: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 9:40 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% SF | SF: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 3:06 | The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +8% NO | SF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 1:38 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 12:40 | Illegal Contact on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% SF | SF: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 4:11 | W. Lutz missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 22 of 31 from 45+ beforeFalse Start on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% SF | NO: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 13:30 | Roughing the Passer on the 49ers (Nick Bosa), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2421 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 | +6% NO | NO: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
- Marquez Callaway (NO WR), out · 0.5 pts
- Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Pete Werner (NO LB), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saints 40% · 49ers 60%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 13
- Luck in points
- 12.7 for the 49ers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Saints 63% · 49ers 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · 
Saints · 
49ers
More from Week 12 2022
- Bills at Lions BUF 28–25 · replay 80% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 28–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- Patriots at Vikings MIN 33–26 · replay 21% for the winner
- Falcons at Commanders WAS 19–13 · replay 32% for the winner
- Ravens at Jaguars JAX 28–27 · replay 21% for the winner
- Bears at Jets NYJ 31–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Bengals at Titans CIN 20–16 · replay 87% for the winner
- Broncos at Panthers CAR 23–10 · replay 64% for the winner
- Texans at Dolphins MIA 30–15 · replay 99% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Browns CLE 23–17 · replay 38% for the winner
- Chargers at Cardinals LAC 25–24 · replay 46% for the winner
- Raiders at Seahawks LV 40–34 · replay 85% for the winner
- Rams at Chiefs KC 26–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Packers at Eagles PHI 40–33 · replay 66% for the winner
- Steelers at Colts PIT 24–17 · replay 84% for the winner