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NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Rams at Chiefs, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Rams 26–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 89% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:34 left): the Chiefs fumbled and the Rams recovered, worth 8 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 10
Kansas City Chiefs 26

November 27, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −16.5

Luck index +1 Chiefs about even · −1 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 0, Chiefs win 10.

  1. 1 LA 13 KC 17
  2. 2 LA 19 KC 27
  3. 3 LA 17 KC 28
  4. 4 LA 28 KC 42
  5. 5 LA 20 KC 37
  6. 6 LA 7 KC 27
  7. 7 LA 6 KC 29
  8. 8 LA 3 KC 28
  9. 9 LA 10 KC 40
  10. 10 LA 6 KC 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 1% of them, Chiefs 99%. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+0.0%
Rams by 9–160.1%
Rams by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.2%
Chiefs by 1–83.0%
Chiefs by 9–1610.5%
Chiefs by 17+85.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 16, without the luck Chiefs by 14.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • H. Butker, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • H. Butker, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • H. Butker, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • H. Butker, 22 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 5 for 25 yards, Chiefs 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 4 yards +1% KC +0.4 pts
Q1 6:20 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Justin Watson), 10 yards +3% LA +0.9 pts
Q2 12:59 Defensive Holding on the Rams, 5 yards +1% KC +0.1 pts
Q2 10:14 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% LA +2.0 pts
Q2 9:50 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.6 pts
Q2 1:00 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +3% LA +0.5 pts
Q4 9:51 Face Mask on the Rams (Aaron Donald), 3 yards +2% KC +2.1 pts
Q4 2:26 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Ernest Jones), 8 yards 0% KC +1.1 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:17 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% LA KC: Punt
2 Q1 11:39 L. McCutcheon dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 0 catchable balls before this +7% KC LA: Punt
3 Q1 11:34 The Chiefs fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LA KC: Touchdown
4 Q2 15:00 M. Gay made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 23 of 32 from 45+ before +6% LA LA: Punt
5 Q2 10:56 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% KC KC: Field goal
6 Q2 8:28 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% LA LA: Punt
7 Q2 6:01 The Rams converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% LA LA: Punt
8 Q2 0:22 M. Valdes-Scantling dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 35 catchable balls before this +5% LA KC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Thuney (KC G), out · 0.7 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (KC FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mecole Hardman (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tershawn Wharton (KC DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Matthew Stafford (LA QB), out, replaced by b.perkins · 7.5 pts
  • Cooper Kupp (LA WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Allen Robinson (LA WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Alaric Jackson (LA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Edwards (LA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Grant Haley (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chandler Brewer (LA T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • A'Shawn Robinson (LA DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 0% · Chiefs 100%

Final margin
Chiefs by 16
Luck in points
1.7 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 14.3
Replay with same day's form
Rams 1% · Chiefs 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Rams · Chiefs

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