luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Rams at Chiefs, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Rams 26–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.3 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 89% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:39 left): L. McCutcheon dropped a catchable pass, worth 9 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 10
Kansas City Chiefs 26

November 27, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −16.5

Luck index 0 Chiefs about even · 0 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 0, Chiefs win 10.

  1. 1 LA 20 KC 24
  2. 2 LA 21 KC 30
  3. 3 LA 10 KC 23
  4. 4 LA 14 KC 30
  5. 5 LA 10 KC 28
  6. 6 LA 10 KC 31
  7. 7 LA 13 KC 37
  8. 8 LA 6 KC 33
  9. 9 LA 3 KC 34
  10. 10 LA 7 KC 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 0% of them, Chiefs 100%. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+0.0%
Rams by 9–160.0%
Rams by 1–80.3%
Level after regulation0.2%
Chiefs by 1–82.5%
Chiefs by 9–168.8%
Chiefs by 17+88.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 11.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • H. Butker, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • H. Butker, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • H. Butker, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • H. Butker, 22 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:39 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedL. McCutcheon dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 0 catchable balls before this +9% KC LA: Punt
2 Q1 11:34 The Chiefs fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LA KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 15:00 M. Gay made 47-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 23 of 32 from 45+ before +6% LA LA: Punt
4 Q2 10:56 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% KC KC: Field goal
5 Q2 6:01 The Rams converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% LA LA: Punt
6 Q2 0:22 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedM. Valdes-Scantling dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 35 catchable balls before this +6% LA KC: Field goal
7 Q4 15:00 The Rams converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% LA LA: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:55 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedThe Chiefs threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% LA KC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Thuney (KC G), out · 0.7 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (KC FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mecole Hardman (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tershawn Wharton (KC DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Matthew Stafford (LA QB), out, replaced by b.perkins · 7.5 pts
  • Cooper Kupp (LA WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Allen Robinson (LA WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Alaric Jackson (LA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Grant Haley (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Edwards (LA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chandler Brewer (LA T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • A'Shawn Robinson (LA DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 0% · Chiefs 100%

Final margin
Chiefs by 16
Luck in points
4.9 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 11.1
Replay with same day's form
Rams 0% · Chiefs 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Rams · Chiefs

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