luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Broncos at Panthers, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Broncos 23–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.9 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:03 left): B. McManus missed 56-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Denver Broncos 10
Carolina Panthers 23

November 27, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Broncos −1

Luck index +41 Panthers lucky · −41 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 4, Panthers win 6.

  1. 1 DEN 33 CAR 13
  2. 2 DEN 23 CAR 10
  3. 3 DEN 13 CAR 7
  4. 4 DEN 17 CAR 14
  5. 5 DEN 21 CAR 23
  6. 6 DEN 21 CAR 26
  7. 7 DEN 17 CAR 25
  8. 8 DEN 10 CAR 23
  9. 9 DEN 10 CAR 27
  10. 10 DEN 14 CAR 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 41% of them, Panthers 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+8.1%
Broncos by 9–1612.8%
Broncos by 1–818.7%
Level after regulation2.7%
Panthers by 1–826.7%
Panthers by 9–1617.0%
Panthers by 17+14.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 7.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 42 yds made · 81% expected
  • B. McManus, 56 yds missed · 58% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 36 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:56 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% DEN CAR: Punt
2 Q1 5:31 The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:56 The Panthers fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DEN CAR: Field goal
4 Q2 10:52 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% CAR DEN: Field goal
5 Q2 4:49 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% DEN CAR: Field goal
6 Q2 4:02 The Broncos fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CAR DEN: Punt
7 Q2 3:56 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% DEN DEN: Punt
8 Q2 0:03 B. McManus missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 40 of 56 from 45+ before +9% CAR DEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Myles Hartsfield (CAR FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Garett Bolles (DEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jerry Jeudy (DEN WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Ronald Darby (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Billy Turner (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • K'Waun Williams (DEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Caden Sterns (DEN FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jonas Griffith (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mitchell Fraboni (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 7% · Panthers 93%

Final margin
Panthers by 13
Luck in points
5.1 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 41% · Panthers 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Broncos · Panthers

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