luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Falcons at Commanders, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Falcons 19–13, but the Falcons played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 3.2 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:03 left): the Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 17 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 13
Washington Commanders 19

November 27, 2022 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −3.5

Luck index +67 Commanders very lucky · −67 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 7, Commanders win 3.

  1. 1 ATL 31 WAS 7
  2. 2 ATL 23 WAS 6
  3. 3 ATL 33 WAS 20
  4. 4 ATL 10 WAS 0
  5. 5 ATL 31 WAS 24
  6. 6 ATL 17 WAS 13
  7. 7 ATL 19 WAS 17
  8. 8 ATL 12 WAS 14
  9. 9 ATL 10 WAS 17
  10. 10 ATL 10 WAS 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 67% of them, Commanders 33%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+17.3%
Falcons by 9–1621.2%
Falcons by 1–827.2%
Level after regulation2.2%
Commanders by 1–820.0%
Commanders by 9–168.9%
Commanders by 17+3.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 0.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 47 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Slye, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • Y. Koo, 58 yds missed · 61% expected
  • Y. Koo, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. Slye, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:39 Face Mask on the Falcons (MyCole Pruitt), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1883 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +10% WAS WAS: Field goal
2 Q2 4:45 The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% WAS WAS: Field goal
3 Q2 0:24 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% ATL WAS: Punt
4 Q2 0:02 Y. Koo missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 32 of 38 from 45+ before +11% WAS ATL: Punt
5 Q3 7:26 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedC. Turner dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 5 catchable balls before this +13% ATL WAS: Touchdown
6 Q3 7:18 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:15 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Montez Sweat), 3 yardsPre-snap flags · 17 flags in 2575 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +9% ATL ATL: Turnover
8 Q4 1:03 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Benjamin St-Juste (WAS CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kyle Pitts (ATL TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Casey Hayward (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ATL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Cornell Armstrong (ATL CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ta'Quon Graham (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 40% · Commanders 60%

Final margin
Commanders by 6
Luck in points
6.4 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 67% · Commanders 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Falcons · Commanders

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