luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Falcons at Commanders, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Falcons 19–13, but the replays lean toward the Falcons: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:03 left): the Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 19 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 13
Washington Commanders 19

November 27, 2022 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −3.5

Luck index +68 Commanders very lucky · −68 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 7, Commanders win 3.

  1. 1 ATL 27 WAS 3
  2. 2 ATL 16 WAS 0
  3. 3 ATL 23 WAS 10
  4. 4 ATL 23 WAS 13
  5. 5 ATL 22 WAS 16
  6. 6 ATL 16 WAS 12
  7. 7 ATL 19 WAS 17
  8. 8 ATL 14 WAS 16
  9. 9 ATL 20 WAS 27
  10. 10 ATL 10 WAS 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 68% of them, Commanders 32%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+19.0%
Falcons by 9–1621.1%
Falcons by 1–828.0%
Level after regulation4.7%
Commanders by 1–815.4%
Commanders by 9–168.6%
Commanders by 17+3.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.5 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 6, without the luck Falcons by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Slye, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • Y. Koo, 58 yds missed · 64% expected
  • Y. Koo, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. Slye, 45 yds made · 80% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 2 for 20 yards, Commanders 4 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 10:39 Face Mask on the Falcons (MyCole Pruitt), 15 yards, wiping out the play +10% WAS +2.5 pts
Q2 9:30 Face Mask on the Commanders, 5 yards +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 12:27 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +7% ATL +1.5 pts
Q4 10:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Curtis Samuel), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% ATL +2.1 pts
Q4 1:15 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Montez Sweat), 3 yards · pre-snap +9% ATL +0.7 pts
Q4 0:44 Running Into the Kicker on the Falcons (Adetokunbo Ogundeji), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% ATL +0.6 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:39 Face Mask on the Falcons (MyCole Pruitt), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1883 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +10% WAS WAS: Field goal
2 Q2 4:45 The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% WAS WAS: Field goal
3 Q2 0:24 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +8% ATL WAS: Punt
4 Q2 0:02 Y. Koo missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 32 of 38 from 45+ before +11% WAS ATL: Punt
5 Q3 12:27 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% ATL ATL: Punt
6 Q3 7:26 C. Turner dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 5 catchable balls before this +10% ATL WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:15 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Montez Sweat), 3 yardsPre-snap flags · 17 flags in 2575 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +9% ATL ATL: Turnover
8 Q4 1:03 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +19% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Benjamin St-Juste (WAS CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kyle Pitts (ATL TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Casey Hayward (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ATL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Cornell Armstrong (ATL CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ta'Quon Graham (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 40% · Commanders 60%

Final margin
Commanders by 6
Luck in points
6.5 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 68% · Commanders 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Falcons · Commanders

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