Week 12 2022 · November 28, 2022
Steelers at Colts, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Colts 24–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Colts: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Colts were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:35 left): the Colts fumbled and the Steelers recovered, worth 13 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 24 |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Steelers about even · −16 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 8, Colts win 2.
- 1 PIT 37 IND 10
- 2 PIT 36 IND 16
- 3 PIT 30 IND 13
- 4 PIT 16 IND 3
- 5 PIT 17 IND 7
- 6 PIT 24 IND 17
- 7 PIT 24 IND 20
- 8 PIT 18 IND 16
- 9 PIT 21 IND 24
- 10 PIT 10 IND 23
Your call
Did the Steelers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Colts
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.12 | +0.03 | better by 0.09 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.14 | better by 0.12 |
| Colts offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.07 | worse by 0.05 |
| Colts defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.07 | worse by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 84% of them, Colts 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 33.2% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 24.1% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 25.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 10.6% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 4.1% |
| Colts by 17+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Wright, 45 yds made · 83% expected
- M. Wright, 52 yds made · 72% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 51 yds made · 70% expected
- M. Wright, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 59 yds blocked · 62% expected
Penalties: Steelers 3 for 19 yards, Colts 2 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:20 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | +6% IND +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards | +1% PIT +0.8 pts |
| Q3 5:24 | Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 4 yards · pre-snap | +8% IND +1.4 pts |
| Q3 4:39 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 5 yards | +6% IND +1.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Roughing the Passer on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 15 yards | +7% PIT +1.4 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Colts’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 14:14 | M. Wright made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 9 of 12 from 45+ before | +8% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 5:24 | Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 4 yardsPre-snap flags · 8 flags in 3078 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +8% IND | IND: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 4:35 | The Colts fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% PIT | IND: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 1:27 | The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +10% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:58 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +9% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 2:00 | The Colts converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +8% IND | IND: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 1:35 | The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% IND | IND: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:30 | The Colts were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +10% PIT | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kwity Paye (IND DE), out · 0.6 pts
- Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Ahkello Witherspoon (PIT CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Chris Boswell (PIT K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Robert Spillane (PIT LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 62% · Colts 38%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 7
- Luck in points
- 5.1 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Steelers by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 84% · Colts 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · 
Steelers · 
Colts
More from Week 12 2022
- Bills at Lions BUF 28–25 · replay 80% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 28–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- Patriots at Vikings MIN 33–26 · replay 21% for the winner
- Falcons at Commanders WAS 19–13 · replay 32% for the winner
- Ravens at Jaguars JAX 28–27 · replay 21% for the winner
- Bears at Jets NYJ 31–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Bengals at Titans CIN 20–16 · replay 87% for the winner
- Broncos at Panthers CAR 23–10 · replay 64% for the winner
- Texans at Dolphins MIA 30–15 · replay 99% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Browns CLE 23–17 · replay 38% for the winner
- Chargers at Cardinals LAC 25–24 · replay 46% for the winner
- Raiders at Seahawks LV 40–34 · replay 85% for the winner
- Rams at Chiefs KC 26–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Saints at 49ers SF 13–0 · replay 37% for the winner
- Packers at Eagles PHI 40–33 · replay 66% for the winner