luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Ravens at Jaguars, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Ravens 28–27, but the replays lean toward the Ravens: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:14 left): the Jaguars’ two-point try was good, worth 29 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 28

November 27, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3.5

Luck index +79 Jaguars very lucky · −79 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 8, Jaguars win 2.

  1. 1 BAL 42 JAX 13
  2. 2 BAL 38 JAX 17
  3. 3 BAL 30 JAX 13
  4. 4 BAL 27 JAX 14
  5. 5 BAL 28 JAX 17
  6. 6 BAL 36 JAX 29
  7. 7 BAL 26 JAX 21
  8. 8 BAL 12 JAX 10
  9. 9 BAL 17 JAX 20
  10. 10 BAL 6 JAX 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 79% of them, Jaguars 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+30.9%
Ravens by 9–1620.2%
Ravens by 1–826.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
Jaguars by 1–812.3%
Jaguars by 9–165.4%
Jaguars by 17+2.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.9 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 1, without the luck Ravens by 8.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Tucker, 55 yds made · 63% expected
  • R. Patterson, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Patterson, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Tucker, 67 yds missed · 22% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 3 for 20 yards, Jaguars 4 for 19 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:12 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 6:22 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 4 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 5:40 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Folorunso Fatukasi), 5 yards +3% BAL +0.8 pts
Q3 2:10 Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards +2% JAX +1.1 pts
Q3 0:51 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +0.8 pts
Q4 4:16 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +29% JAX +3.0 pts
Q4 0:41 False Start on the Jaguars (Jamycal Hasty), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.5 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 6% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:06 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +10% BAL JAX: Punt
2 Q2 7:10 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% BAL BAL: Field goal
3 Q4 8:44 The Jaguars converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q4 5:49 The Ravens fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% JAX BAL: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:16 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +29% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:02 The Ravens’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedZ. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 63 catchable balls before this +11% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:14 The Jaguars’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +29% JAX –
8 Q4 0:02 J. Tucker missed a 67-yard field goalKicks · 22% expected for him, 41 of 49 from 45+ before +22% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Bynes (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 84% · Jaguars 16%

Final margin
Jaguars by 1
Luck in points
9.9 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 8.9
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 79% · Jaguars 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Ravens · Jaguars

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