luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Ravens at Jaguars, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars stole one. They beat the Ravens 28–27, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.4 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): J. Tucker missed 67-yard field goal, worth 81 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 28

November 27, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3.5

Luck index +80 Jaguars very lucky · −80 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 8, Jaguars win 2.

  1. 1 BAL 47 JAX 20
  2. 2 BAL 34 JAX 14
  3. 3 BAL 33 JAX 17
  4. 4 BAL 37 JAX 24
  5. 5 BAL 27 JAX 17
  6. 6 BAL 27 JAX 20
  7. 7 BAL 28 JAX 24
  8. 8 BAL 31 JAX 29
  9. 9 BAL 16 JAX 19
  10. 10 BAL 23 JAX 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 80% of them, Jaguars 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+33.1%
Ravens by 9–1620.8%
Ravens by 1–824.2%
Level after regulation2.3%
Jaguars by 1–811.9%
Jaguars by 9–165.5%
Jaguars by 17+2.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 10.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Tucker, 55 yds made · 61% expected
  • R. Patterson, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 24 yds made · 100% expected
  • R. Patterson, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Tucker, 67 yds missed · 47% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 6% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:57 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% JAX BAL: Field goal
2 Q3 0:28 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% BAL JAX: Touchdown
3 Q4 8:44 The Jaguars converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +15% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q4 5:49 The Ravens fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% JAX BAL: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:16 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +29% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:02 The Ravens’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedZ. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 63 catchable balls before this +12% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:14 The Jaguars’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +29% JAX –
8 Q4 0:02 J. Tucker missed 67-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 41 of 49 from 45+ before +81% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Bynes (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 89% · Jaguars 11%

Final margin
Jaguars by 1
Luck in points
11.5 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 10.5
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 80% · Jaguars 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Ravens · Jaguars

More from Week 12 2022