luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Buccaneers at Browns, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Buccaneers 23–17, but the replays lean toward the Buccaneers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:37 left): the Browns converted 4th & 10, worth 25 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final (OT)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
Cleveland Browns 23

November 27, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3

Luck index +62 Browns very lucky · −62 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 6, Browns win 4.

  1. 1 TB 35 CLE 10
  2. 2 TB 26 CLE 10
  3. 3 TB 44 CLE 31
  4. 4 TB 35 CLE 27
  5. 5 TB 27 CLE 23
  6. 6 TB 16 CLE 14
  7. 7 TB 14 CLE 17
  8. 8 TB 23 CLE 30
  9. 9 TB 23 CLE 35
  10. 10 TB 16 CLE 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 62% of them, Browns 38%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+17.8%
Buccaneers by 9–1618.0%
Buccaneers by 1–825.3%
Level after regulation1.8%
Browns by 1–818.0%
Browns by 9–1612.3%
Browns by 17+6.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.3 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Browns by 6, without the luck Browns by 14.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. York, 51 yds made · 62% expected
  • C. York, 39 yds missed · 87% expected
  • R. Succop, 42 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 9 for 70 yards, Browns 5 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:15 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.7 pts
Q1 5:11 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Devin White), 15 yards +4% CLE +1.7 pts
Q2 13:52 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% TB +1.3 pts
Q2 6:21 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Donovan Peoples-Jones), 10 yards +4% TB +1.2 pts
Q2 3:53 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CLE +2.2 pts
Q3 1:26 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Genard Avery), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.4 pts
Q4 14:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 13 yards +4% TB +2.2 pts
Q4 13:28 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.8 pts
Q4 12:41 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +1.0 pts
Q4 4:02 Illegal Contact on the Buccaneers, 5 yards +1% CLE +0.4 pts
OT 9:35 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +13% TB +1.0 pts
OT 8:04 Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +21% CLE +2.1 pts
OT 6:47 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 9 yards, wiping out the play +12% TB +1.3 pts
OT 5:39 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +6% CLE +0.9 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 8:26 A. Cooper dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 63 catchable balls before this +11% TB CLE: Punt
2 Q4 0:37 The Browns converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +25% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 OT 9:35 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 16 flags in 2943 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +13% TB TB: Punt
4 OT 9:01 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +15% TB TB: Punt
5 OT 8:04 Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +21% CLE CLE: Punt
6 OT 6:47 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% TB TB: Punt
7 OT 3:29 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +13% CLE TB: Punt
8 OT 0:56 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +20% CLE CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Leonard Fournette (TB RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Shaquil Barrett (TB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 1% · Browns 99%

Final margin
Browns by 6
Luck in points
8.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 14.3
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 62% · Browns 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Buccaneers · Browns

More from Week 12 2022