luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2022 · November 24, 2022

Bills at Lions, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Lions 28–25, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:28 left): M. Badgley made a 51-yard field goal, worth 25 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Buffalo Bills 28
Detroit Lions 25

November 24, 2022 · Ford Field · Closing line: Bills −10

Luck index +20 Bills about even · −20 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 8, Lions win 2.

  1. 1 BUF 47 DET 14
  2. 2 BUF 36 DET 13
  3. 3 BUF 31 DET 13
  4. 4 BUF 37 DET 24
  5. 5 BUF 20 DET 10
  6. 6 BUF 30 DET 24
  7. 7 BUF 23 DET 19
  8. 8 BUF 30 DET 28
  9. 9 BUF 37 DET 41
  10. 10 BUF 33 DET 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 80% of them, Lions 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+30.6%
Bills by 9–1620.6%
Bills by 1–827.3%
Level after regulation1.7%
Lions by 1–811.5%
Lions by 9–165.9%
Lions by 17+2.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 3, without the luck Bills by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • M. Badgley, 29 yds missed · 95% expected
  • M. Badgley, 51 yds made · 63% expected
  • T. Bass, 45 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 5 for 36 yards, Lions 3 for 32 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:14 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Boogie Basham), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +1.2 pts
Q1 6:56 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Tim Settle), 3 yards · pre-snap +7% DET +2.2 pts
Q2 5:39 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% BUF 0.0 pts
Q3 11:48 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +5% DET +1.0 pts
Q3 10:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 19 yards +9% BUF +2.1 pts
Q3 0:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 13 yards +7% DET +1.0 pts
Q4 3:26 Roughing the Passer on the Lions (Austin Bryant), 8 yards +7% BUF +0.8 pts
Q4 0:37 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BUF +0.5 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:00 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedThe Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:55 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +11% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q3 13:00 The Bills converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% BUF BUF: Turnover
4 Q3 2:00 M. Badgley missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +14% BUF DET: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:15 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +12% BUF DET: Field goal
6 Q4 0:45 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +18% DET DET: Field goal
7 Q4 0:32 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +18% BUF DET: Field goal
8 Q4 0:28 M. Badgley made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 9 of 22 from 45+ before +25% DET DET: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonah Jackson (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Brown (DET C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jeff Okudah (DET CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Paschal (DET DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Charles Harris (DET LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Gregory Rousseau (BUF DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tremaine Edmunds (BUF LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mitch Morse (BUF C), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 54% · Lions 46%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
2.3 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Bills 80% · Lions 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Bills · Lions

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