luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 24, 2022

Bills at Lions, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Lions 28–25 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:28 left): M. Badgley made 51-yard field goal, worth 24 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Buffalo Bills 28
Detroit Lions 25

November 24, 2022 · Ford Field · Closing line: Bills −10

Luck index +22 Bills about even · −22 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 8, Lions win 2.

  1. 1 BUF 37 DET 6
  2. 2 BUF 38 DET 16
  3. 3 BUF 38 DET 21
  4. 4 BUF 20 DET 6
  5. 5 BUF 34 DET 24
  6. 6 BUF 28 DET 22
  7. 7 BUF 24 DET 20
  8. 8 BUF 21 DET 19
  9. 9 BUF 14 DET 17
  10. 10 BUF 13 DET 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 78% of them, Lions 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+30.3%
Bills by 9–1620.6%
Bills by 1–826.7%
Level after regulation2.1%
Lions by 1–811.8%
Lions by 9–165.8%
Lions by 17+2.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 0.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • M. Badgley, 29 yds missed · 96% expected
  • M. Badgley, 51 yds made · 64% expected
  • T. Bass, 45 yds made · 83% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:00 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedThe Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:55 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +13% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q3 13:00 The Bills converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% BUF BUF: Turnover
4 Q3 2:00 M. Badgley missed 29-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +14% BUF DET: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:15 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +12% BUF DET: Field goal
6 Q4 0:45 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +24% DET DET: Field goal
7 Q4 0:32 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +18% BUF DET: Field goal
8 Q4 0:28 M. Badgley made 51-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 9 of 22 from 45+ before +24% DET DET: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonah Jackson (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Brown (DET C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jeff Okudah (DET CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Paschal (DET DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Charles Harris (DET LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Gregory Rousseau (BUF DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tremaine Edmunds (BUF LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mitch Morse (BUF C), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 52% · Lions 48%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
2.6 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Bills 78% · Lions 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Bills · Lions

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