luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2022 NFL season · November 24, 2022–November 28

Week 12 2022: who deserved to win

5 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Vikings beat the Patriots 33–26 in a game they win 21% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 12 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Raiders 40–34 @ Seahawks 38% 85% Deserved
Jaguars 28–27 vs Ravens 40% 21% Lucky
Browns 23–17 vs Buccaneers 41% 38% Lucky
Steelers 24–17 @ Colts 43% 84% Deserved
Panthers 23–10 vs Broncos 47% 64% Deserved

Week 12 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jaguars W 28–27 vs Ravens 21% +79
2 Vikings W 33–26 vs Patriots 21% +79
3 Commanders W 19–13 vs Falcons 32% +68
4 49ers W 13–0 vs Saints 37% +63
5 Browns W 23–17 vs Buccaneers 38% +62
6 Chargers W 25–24 @ Cardinals 46% +54
7 Cowboys W 28–20 vs Giants 49% +51
8 Panthers W 23–10 vs Broncos 64% +36
9 Eagles W 40–33 vs Packers 66% +34
10 Jets W 31–10 vs Bears 77% +23
11 Bills W 28–25 @ Lions 80% +20
12 Steelers W 24–17 @ Colts 84% +16
13 Raiders W 40–34 @ Seahawks 85% +15
14 Bengals W 20–16 @ Titans 87% +13
15 Dolphins W 30–15 vs Texans 99% +1
16 Chiefs W 26–10 vs Rams 99% +1
17 Rams L 10–26 @ Chiefs 1% −1
18 Texans L 15–30 @ Dolphins 1% −1
19 Titans L 16–20 vs Bengals 13% −13
20 Seahawks L 34–40 vs Raiders 15% −15
21 Colts L 17–24 vs Steelers 16% −16
22 Lions L 25–28 vs Bills 20% −20
23 Bears L 10–31 @ Jets 23% −23
24 Packers L 33–40 @ Eagles 34% −34
25 Broncos L 10–23 @ Panthers 36% −36
26 Giants L 20–28 @ Cowboys 51% −51
27 Cardinals L 24–25 vs Chargers 54% −54
28 Buccaneers L 17–23 @ Browns 62% −62
29 Saints L 0–13 @ 49ers 63% −63
30 Falcons L 13–19 @ Commanders 68% −68
31 Patriots L 26–33 @ Vikings 79% −79
32 Ravens L 27–28 @ Jaguars 79% −79