2022 season · final
Indianapolis Colts, 2022: game by game
The Colts went 4–12–1 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.4 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 15th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–6–1.
Every game
How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Texans | T 20–20 | 57% | −7 |
| Week 2 | @ Jaguars | L 0–24 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 3 | vs Chiefs | W 20–17 | 10% | +90 |
| Week 4 | vs Titans | L 17–24 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 5 | @ Broncos | W 12–9 | 3% | +97 |
| Week 6 | vs Jaguars | W 34–27 | 14% | +86 |
| Week 7 | @ Titans | L 10–19 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 8 | vs Commanders | L 16–17 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 9 | @ Patriots | L 3–26 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 10 | @ Raiders | W 25–20 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 11 | vs Eagles | L 16–17 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 12 | vs Steelers | L 17–24 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 13 | @ Cowboys | L 19–54 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 15 | @ Vikings | L 36–39 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 16 | vs Chargers | L 3–20 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 17 | @ Giants | L 10–38 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 18 | vs Texans | L 31–32 | 75% | −75 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Colts’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +1.13 | +25.9 |
| Judgment calls | −0.07 | −5.7 |
| Kicks | −0.23 | −3.5 |
| Injuries | −0.33 | −12.4 |
| Drops | −0.40 | −2.4 |