2022 season · final
Indianapolis Colts, 2022: game by game
The Colts went 4–12–1 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.3 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 15th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–6–1.
Every game
How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Texans | T 20–20 | 50% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Jaguars | L 0–24 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 3 | vs Chiefs | W 20–17 | 5% | +95 |
| Week 4 | vs Titans | L 17–24 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 5 | @ Broncos | W 12–9 | 3% | +97 |
| Week 6 | vs Jaguars | W 34–27 | 25% | +75 |
| Week 7 | @ Titans | L 10–19 | 59% | −59 |
| Week 8 | vs Commanders | L 16–17 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 9 | @ Patriots | L 3–26 | 43% | −43 |
| Week 10 | @ Raiders | W 25–20 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 11 | vs Eagles | L 16–17 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 12 | vs Steelers | L 17–24 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 13 | @ Cowboys | L 19–54 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 15 | @ Vikings | L 36–39 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 16 | vs Chargers | L 3–20 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 17 | @ Giants | L 10–38 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 18 | vs Texans | L 31–32 | 75% | −75 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Colts’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +20.5 | +1.20 |
| Rest | −0.8 | −0.05 |
| Kicks | −4.1 | −0.24 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −7.6 | −0.45 |
| Drops | −8.1 | −0.47 |
| Judgment calls | −12.8 | −0.75 |
| Injuries | −16.6 | −0.98 |