luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Eagles at Colts, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Colts 17–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): the Eagles converted 4th & 2, worth 13 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 17
Indianapolis Colts 16

November 20, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −6.5

Luck index +25 Eagles about even · −25 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 8, Colts win 2.

  1. 1 PHI 48 IND 20
  2. 2 PHI 40 IND 19
  3. 3 PHI 26 IND 10
  4. 4 PHI 23 IND 9
  5. 5 PHI 30 IND 19
  6. 6 PHI 26 IND 19
  7. 7 PHI 27 IND 22
  8. 8 PHI 23 IND 20
  9. 9 PHI 27 IND 32
  10. 10 PHI 13 IND 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 75% of them, Colts 25%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+29.5%
Eagles by 9–1620.1%
Eagles by 1–824.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Colts by 1–813.2%
Colts by 9–167.6%
Colts by 17+3.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 1, without the luck Eagles by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 50 yds missed · 72% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 37 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 7 for 55 yards, Colts 8 for 90 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:37 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +5% IND +2.1 pts
Q1 3:58 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 6 yards +3% IND +0.8 pts
Q1 3:31 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 9 yards +1% IND +0.8 pts
Q1 2:59 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% IND +2.5 pts
Q2 13:45 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% PHI +1.7 pts
Q2 3:44 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% PHI +1.2 pts
Q2 1:53 False Start on the Eagles (Jack Stoll), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.3 pts
Q3 14:14 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q3 12:13 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +3% IND +1.3 pts
Q3 8:20 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 4:21 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +2% PHI +1.5 pts
Q4 14:38 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Dayo Odeyingbo), 6 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q4 8:08 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Javon Hargrave), 5 yards +1% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 3:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 39 yards +12% PHI +2.5 pts
Q4 0:39 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI 0.0 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 11:04 The Colts fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% PHI IND: Field goal
2 Q4 9:43 The Eagles fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% IND PHI: Touchdown
3 Q4 8:49 The Colts converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q4 3:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 39 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2110 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:00 The Eagles converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +13% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:24 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:48 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% PHI IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:39 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 213rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedFalse Start on the Colts, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% PHI IND: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kwity Paye (IND DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Matt Pryor (IND T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 51% · Colts 49%

Final margin
Eagles by 1
Luck in points
0.6 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 75% · Colts 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Eagles · Colts

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