luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Raiders at Broncos, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Broncos 22–16, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:34 left): B. McManus made a 48-yard field goal, worth 14 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final (OT)

Las Vegas Raiders 22
Denver Broncos 16

November 20, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −2.5

Luck index +45 Raiders lucky · −45 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 5, Broncos win 5.

  1. 1 LV 31 DEN 7
  2. 2 LV 30 DEN 14
  3. 3 LV 21 DEN 11
  4. 4 LV 23 DEN 17
  5. 5 LV 17 DEN 14
  6. 6 LV 24 DEN 27
  7. 7 LV 34 DEN 40
  8. 8 LV 21 DEN 30
  9. 9 LV 13 DEN 27
  10. 10 LV 6 DEN 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 55% of them, Broncos 45%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+12.3%
Raiders by 9–1615.4%
Raiders by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation5.7%
Broncos by 1–822.4%
Broncos by 9–1612.6%
Broncos by 17+9.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Raiders by 6, without the luck Raiders by 10.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 46 yds missed · 81% expected
  • B. McManus, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • B. McManus, 25 yds blocked · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 52 yds made · 68% expected
  • B. McManus, 52 yds made · 67% expected
  • D. Carlson, 57 yds made · 63% expected
  • B. McManus, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 9 for 98 yards, Broncos 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:45 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Mack Hollins), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% DEN +0.4 pts
Q1 8:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders, 18 yards +4% DEN +1.6 pts
Q1 6:22 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +2% DEN +0.9 pts
Q1 6:16 Illegal Contact on the Broncos, 5 yards 0% LV +0.3 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% DEN +0.5 pts
Q2 9:19 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +2% DEN +0.9 pts
Q2 5:44 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Broncos (Dre'Mont Jones), 15 yards +2% LV +1.0 pts
Q2 4:36 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.7 pts
Q2 3:25 Illegal Blindside Block on the Broncos (Courtland Sutton), 15 yards +5% LV +1.3 pts
Q2 2:56 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 15 yards +6% DEN +1.4 pts
Q3 9:56 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.7 pts
Q3 5:35 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders (Davante Adams), 15 yards +5% DEN +1.3 pts
Q4 10:07 Defensive Holding on the Broncos, 5 yards +11% LV +1.9 pts
Q4 8:01 False Start on the Raiders (Jakob Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% DEN +0.5 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 3:25 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedIllegal Blindside Block on the Broncos (Courtland Sutton), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2465 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +8% LV DEN: Missed field goal
2 Q2 0:02 B. McManus had a 25-yard field goal blockedKicks · 98% expected for him +8% LV DEN: Punt
3 Q4 15:00 B. McManus made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 38 of 54 from 45+ before +11% DEN DEN: Punt
4 Q4 10:07 Defensive Holding on the Broncos, 5 yardsJudgment calls +11% LV LV: Field goal
5 Q4 7:11 D. Carlson made a 57-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 29 of 35 from 45+ before +10% LV LV: Punt
6 Q4 3:39 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +9% LV DEN: Field goal
7 Q4 3:34 B. McManus made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 39 of 55 from 45+ before +14% DEN DEN: Punt
8 Q4 0:23 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% DEN LV: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Garett Bolles (DEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jerry Jeudy (DEN WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Ronald Darby (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Billy Turner (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • K'Waun Williams (DEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Caden Sterns (DEN FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jonas Griffith (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mitchell Fraboni (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Hunter Renfrow (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Darren Waller (LV TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 96% · Broncos 4%

Final margin
Raiders by 6
Luck in points
4.1 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 10.1
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 55% · Broncos 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Raiders · Broncos

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