luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Commanders at Texans, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Texans 23–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:24 left): Return touchdown by the Commanders, worth 27 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 23
Houston Texans 10

November 20, 2022 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Commanders −3

Luck index +17 Commanders about even · −17 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 8, Texans win 2.

  1. 1 WAS 29 HOU 0
  2. 2 WAS 22 HOU 0
  3. 3 WAS 17 HOU 0
  4. 4 WAS 25 HOU 12
  5. 5 WAS 27 HOU 17
  6. 6 WAS 17 HOU 10
  7. 7 WAS 24 HOU 20
  8. 8 WAS 12 HOU 10
  9. 9 WAS 10 HOU 14
  10. 10 WAS 3 HOU 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 83% of them, Texans 17%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+37.4%
Commanders by 9–1624.7%
Commanders by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
Texans by 1–811.9%
Texans by 9–163.1%
Texans by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 13, without the luck Commanders by 12.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Slye, 44 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 5 for 36 yards, Texans 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:16 Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU 0.0 pts
Q1 2:05 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q2 12:59 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Desmond King), 5 yards +1% WAS +0.2 pts
Q2 4:14 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% WAS +2.0 pts
Q2 3:00 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 11:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders, 6 yards 0% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 6:33 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +1.0 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:16 The Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +4% WAS WAS: Punt
2 Q1 14:08 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +3% HOU WAS: Punt
3 Q1 13:24 The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the CommandersSpecial teams +27% WAS HOU: Punt
4 Q1 10:17 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% HOU WAS: Punt
5 Q1 7:05 The Commanders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% WAS WAS: Punt
6 Q1 2:05 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q2 4:14 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% WAS WAS: Field goal
8 Q3 12:30 The Texans converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +3% HOU HOU: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brevin Jordan (HOU TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rachad Wildgoose (WAS CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 99% · Texans 1%

Final margin
Commanders by 13
Luck in points
0.4 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 12.6
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 83% · Texans 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Commanders · Texans

More from Week 11 2022