luckadjusted

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Rams at Saints, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Rams 27–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:55 left): the Saints converted 3rd & 10, worth 14 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 20
New Orleans Saints 27

November 20, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −2.5

Luck index +22 Saints about even · −22 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 2, Saints win 8.

  1. 1 LA 17 NO 3
  2. 2 LA 23 NO 20
  3. 3 LA 21 NO 23
  4. 4 LA 26 NO 31
  5. 5 LA 21 NO 30
  6. 6 LA 6 NO 17
  7. 7 LA 16 NO 31
  8. 8 LA 18 NO 36
  9. 9 LA 6 NO 29
  10. 10 LA 6 NO 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 22% of them, Saints 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+2.7%
Rams by 9–166.4%
Rams by 1–811.2%
Level after regulation2.4%
Saints by 1–825.3%
Saints by 9–1620.9%
Saints by 17+31.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 0.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • M. Gay, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • W. Lutz, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 58 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:40 The Saints converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% NO NO: Field goal
2 Q2 12:16 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q2 7:44 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +11% LA LA: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 5:29 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +13% NO LA: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:36 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% NO NO: End of half
6 Q3 13:04 The Saints converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +8% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q3 5:55 The Saints converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +14% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:58 The Rams converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% LA LA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Cameron Jordan (NO DE), out · 1.0 pts
  • James Hurst (NO T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bradley Roby (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Pete Werner (NO LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cooper Kupp (LA WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Alaric Jackson (LA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Edwards (LA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Grant Haley (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chandler Brewer (LA T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 47% · Saints 53%

Final margin
Saints by 7
Luck in points
6.1 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Rams 22% · Saints 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Rams · Saints

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