2022 season · final
New Orleans Saints, 2022: game by game
The Saints went 7–10 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.2 wins. Luck cost them 3.2: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–6.
Every game
How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Falcons | W 27–26 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 2 | vs Buccaneers | L 10–20 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 3 | @ Panthers | L 14–22 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 4 | vs Vikings | L 25–28 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 5 | vs Seahawks | W 39–32 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 6 | vs Bengals | L 26–30 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 7 | @ Cardinals | L 34–42 | 86% | −86 |
| Week 8 | vs Raiders | W 24–0 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 9 | vs Ravens | L 13–27 | 59% | −59 |
| Week 10 | @ Steelers | L 10–20 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 11 | vs Rams | W 27–20 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 12 | @ 49ers | L 0–13 | 63% | −63 |
| Week 13 | @ Buccaneers | L 16–17 | 86% | −86 |
| Week 15 | vs Falcons | W 21–18 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 16 | @ Browns | W 17–10 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 17 | @ Eagles | W 20–10 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 18 | vs Panthers | L 7–10 | 93% | −93 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Saints’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.03 | +0.7 |
| Rest | −0.05 | −1.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.12 | −6.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.13 | −4.5 |
| Drops | −0.38 | +5.9 |
| Injuries | −0.45 | −16.3 |
| Kicks | −0.58 | −22.0 |