luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Saints?

No, if anything the opposite. Judgment calls have cost the Saints 1.13 points a game since 2019, the 2nd-most of 32 teams. In the playoffs: +5.84 points a game over 3 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Saints minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262+1.09 9th59 –
202517−0.17 19th6569 –
202417−0.28 20th7270 –
202317+0.16 18th6259 –
202217+0.15 12th6354 –
202117−0.27 20th6058 –
202016−3.34 32nd7736 +8.13 (2)
201916−4.79 32nd9254 +1.24 (1)

Biggest calls for the Saints

  1. Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 13 · 57 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Divisional round · 30 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 6 · 26 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 5 · 24 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 6 · 24 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Leverage on the Saints (Tanoh Kpassagnon), 15 yards · 2022 Week 13 · 35 pts of win probability
  2. Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 41 yards · 2022 Week 4 · 26 pts of win probability
  3. Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 30 yards · 2024 Week 4 · 24 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 8 · 24 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 7 · 21 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Saints?

No, if anything the opposite. Judgment calls have cost the Saints 1.13 points a game since 2019, the 2nd-most of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: +5.84 points a game over 3 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · New Orleans Saints, every season