luckadjusted

Divisional round 2020 · January 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Saints, Divisional round 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Saints 30–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Buccaneers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Saints were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:19 left): Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 30 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30
New Orleans Saints 20

January 17, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −2.5

Luck index +44 Buccaneers lucky · −44 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 6, Saints win 4.

  1. 1 TB 46 NO 24
  2. 2 TB 30 NO 16
  3. 3 TB 23 NO 13
  4. 4 TB 24 NO 17
  5. 5 TB 27 NO 23
  6. 6 TB 22 NO 20
  7. 7 TB 21 NO 23
  8. 8 TB 21 NO 27
  9. 9 TB 16 NO 28
  10. 10 TB 13 NO 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 56% of them, Saints 44%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+11.1%
Buccaneers by 9–1615.0%
Buccaneers by 1–823.9%
Level after regulation6.6%
Saints by 1–822.0%
Saints by 9–1612.6%
Saints by 17+8.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 18.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • W. Lutz, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • R. Succop, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Succop, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • R. Succop, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:00 R. Succop made 26-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +10% NO TB: Touchdown
2 Q3 4:41 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Saints fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% TB NO: Punt
3 Q3 2:26 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +10% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q4 14:19 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +30% NO NO: Turnover
5 Q4 13:46 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% TB TB: Field goal
6 Q4 11:57 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +14% TB TB: Field goal
7 Q4 9:57 R. Succop made 36-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +9% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:30 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% NO NO: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kwon Alexander (NO LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Easton (NO C/G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Alex Cappa (TB G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • A.Q. Shipley (TB C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 99% · Saints 1%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 10
Luck in points
8.2 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 18.2
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 56% · Saints 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2020 games · Buccaneers · Saints

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