luckadjusted

Divisional round 2020 · January 16, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Packers, Divisional round 2020: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Rams 32–18, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 70% favorites.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 18
Green Bay Packers 32

January 16, 2021 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −7

Luck index +14 Packers about even · −14 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 LA 19 GB 14
  2. 2 LA 26 GB 28
  3. 3 LA 33 GB 37
  4. 4 LA 23 GB 28
  5. 5 LA 26 GB 34
  6. 6 LA 23 GB 34
  7. 7 LA 23 GB 38
  8. 8 LA 13 GB 31
  9. 9 LA 13 GB 35
  10. 10 LA 17 GB 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 14% of them, Packers 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+0.8%
Rams by 9–163.6%
Rams by 1–89.3%
Level after regulation1.0%
Packers by 1–823.9%
Packers by 9–1624.2%
Packers by 17+37.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 10.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Gay, 37 yds made · 87% expected
  • M. Crosby, 39 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:39 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% GB LA: Punt
2 Q1 9:54 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% GB GB: Field goal
3 Q1 8:47 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% LA GB: Field goal
4 Q1 4:40 M. Gay made 37-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for himFalse Start on the Rams, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% GB LA: Punt
5 Q2 14:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Aaron Donald), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1931 snaps before, position avg 1 per 390 +3% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q2 11:40 The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:52 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% GB GB: Punt
8 Q4 13:33 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% LA GB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Raven Greene (GB S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cooper Kupp (LA WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • David Edwards (LA OL), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 1% · Packers 99%

Final margin
Packers by 14
Luck in points
3.8 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 10.2
Replay with same day's form
Rams 14% · Packers 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2020 games · Rams · Packers

More from Divisional round 2020